俄乌冲突背景下俄罗斯粮食贸易韧性分析  

Resilience of Russian Grain Trade in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：尹如玉 崔珩 YIN Ruyu;CUI Heng(China Open Economy Research Institute,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China;Sino-Shanghai Cooperation Organization International Judicial Exchange and Cooperation Training Base,Shanghai Political and Law University,Shanghai 201701,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学中国开放经济研究院,辽宁沈阳110136 [2]上海政法学院中国-上海合作组织国际司法交流合作培训基地,上海201701

出　　处：《辽宁大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期27-37,F0003,共12页Journal of Liaoning University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：2023年辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目“高质量共建‘一带一路’背景下辽宁省深化对俄合作机制构建及其优化路径研究”(JYTMS20230733);2023年辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题青年人才项目“中俄深化全面战略协作伙伴背景下辽宁省服务中俄‘东北-远东’合作路径研究”(2024lslqnrckt-009)。

摘　　要：文章首先分析了俄罗斯作为全球主要农产品生产国和出口国所面临的挑战,特别是在全球粮食市场动荡和西方国家对俄经济制裁的双重压力下,俄罗斯粮食贸易如何展现出独特的韧性。俄罗斯通过短期依靠战略储备、中期依赖出口扩展、长期加强生产力的方式等,调动政府与市场的协同作用,构建起足以应对外部冲击的韧性粮食贸易体系。进一步地,文章探讨了中俄粮食贸易合作的潜力与挑战,指出在当前的国际经济政治环境下,中俄两国通过加强合作,可以促进粮食贸易的稳定与发展。文章认为,面对国际经济制裁和市场波动的挑战,俄罗斯的粮食贸易展现了显著的韧性,通过策略调整保障了国内粮食安全和国际竞争力。文章深入分析了俄罗斯粮食贸易的适应性策略,为研究者和政策制定者理解及应对全球粮食市场所面临的挑战提供了理论依据和实证参考。This paper analyzes the challenges faced by Russia,a major global producer and exporter of agricultural products,particularly the unique resilience of Russian grain trade under the dual pressures of global grain market turbulence and Western economic sanctions.By means of a combination of short-term reliance on strategic reserves,medium-term reliance on export expansion,and long-term reliance on productivity enhancement,as well as leveraging the coordinated efforts of both government and market forces,Russia has built a resilient grain trade system capable of withstanding external shocks.Furthermore,the paper discusses the potential and challenges of Sino-Russian grain trade cooperation,arguing that China and Russia can promote the stability and development of grain trade between the two countries by strengthening bilateral cooperation in the current international economic and political environment.The paper concludes that in the face of economic sanctions and market volatility,Russia's grain trade has exhibited significant resilience,ensuring both domestic food security and international competitiveness through strategic adjustments.This study provides theoretical and empirical insights for researchers and policymakers to better understand and address the challenges facing the global grain market by analyzing the adaptive strategy of Russian grain trade.

关 键 词：俄罗斯粮食贸易韧性 国际制裁 农业出口 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]