多层次农业保险目标下理论与实践协同的挑战——以天气指数保险创新为例  

Bridging Theory and Practice in Multi-tiered Agricultural Insurance:Insights from Weather Index Insurance Innovation

作　　者：易福金 杨柳 张岳[3] 娄伟平 YI Fujin;YANG Liu;ZHANG Yue;LOU Weiping(China Academy for Rural Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;School of Management,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Xinchang County Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Xinchang 312500,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,浙江杭州310058 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [3]河北大学管理学院,河北保定071002 [4]浙江省新昌县气象局,浙江新昌312500

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2024年第6期13-27,共15页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家自然科学基金—盖茨基金国际合作重点项目“农业综合天气指数保险研究和实施”(72261147758);国家社会科学基金项目“有效提升农业风险管理需求研究”(22VRC178);浙江省哲学社会科学规划领军人才培育专项“农业安全生产支持政策体系研究”(24YJRC01ZD)。

摘　　要：发展多层次农业保险须在理论可行与实践检验的基础上开展保险产品创新。以天气指数保险为例,尽管传统观点认为其具备破解信息不对称引发的逆向选择问题这一理论优势,可满足地方特色经济作物多样化风险管理的需求。但受限于试点范围有限、时间短,现有论证缺乏有效现实依据支撑。本文将理论与现实情景相结合,采用单案例纵向分析的方式重点针对“天气指数保险可规避逆向选择”的主流理论观点进行实践检验,补充了观点成立的重要前提条件。研究发现:受限于未能根本性消除个体特征风险,天气指数保险本身仍面临逆向选择问题。同时,气象指标测量精度与产品设计精细化程度相匹配是天气指数保险缓解逆向选择问题的重要前提条件之一。二者不匹配会进一步强化个体特征风险差异、放大不同农户个体特征风险与区域平均风险水平的关联差异,加剧逆向选择问题,进而引发天气指数保险不可持续危机。通过推进农业保险产品创新理论与实践效果的协同优化,本研究为发展多层次农业保险提供重要启示。The development of multi-tiered agricultural insurance requires product innovation based on both theoretical feasibility and practical validation.Using weather index insurance as an example,this study challenges the traditional view that it inherently solves adverse selection problems caused by information asymmetry.Due to limited pilot scope and duration,existing arguments lack substantial empirical support.This paper combines theoretical analysis with real-world scenarios,employing a longitudinal single-case study to empirically test the prevailing theoretical perspective that"weather index insurance can mitigate adverse selection".This research supplements important preconditions for this theory's validity.The findings reveal that weather index insurance still faces adverse selection issues due to its inability to fundamentally eliminate individual risk characteristics.Simultaneously,this paper identifies that the alignment between meteorological indicator measurement precision and product design sophistication is a crucial precondition for weather index insurance to alleviate adverse selection problems.Misalignment of these factors can further intensify differences in individual risk characteristics,amplify the disparity between individual risk profiles and regional average risk levels,and exacerbate adverse selection issues,potentially leading to the unsustainability of weather index insurance.By advancing the synergistic optimization of agricultural insurance product innovation theory and practical effectiveness,this study provides important insights for developing multi-tiered agricultural insurance systems.

关 键 词：多层次农业保险 天气指数保险 逆向选择 案例研究 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]