我国大气环境模式的研究进展和未来展望  

Research progress and future prospects of atmospheric environment models in China

作　　者：王体健[1] 李蒙蒙 韩志伟[2] 张华[3] 周春红[4] 谢旻 李树[1] 庄炳亮[1] 吴昊[6] 曲雅微 傅宗玫 马丹阳 李亚松 WANG Ti-jian;LI Meng-meng;HAN Zhi-wei;ZHANG Hua;ZHOU Chun-hong;XIE Min;LI Shu;ZHUANG Bing-liang;WU Hao;QU Ya-wei;FU Tzung-may;MA Dan-yang;LI Ya-song(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Atmospheric Composition and Environmental Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Environment,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210041,China;College of Intelligent Science and Control Engineering,Jinling Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211169,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,东亚区域气候研究中心,北京100029 [3]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [4]中国气象科学研究院大气成分与环境气象研究所,北京100081 [5]南京师范大学环境学院,江苏南京210023 [6]南京气象科技创新研究院中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,江苏南京210041 [7]金陵科技学院智能科学与控制工程学院,江苏南京211169 [8]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第11期5921-5933,共13页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0607802);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42077192)。

摘　　要：本文针对我国大气环境模式的发展历史和主要特点开展系统综述,并对大气环境模式的研究进行展望,提出未来可能的发展方向.我国自20世纪60年代开始大气环境模式方面的发展和应用研究,历经输送扩散模式、酸沉降模式、空气质量模式、气候-化学耦合模式、地球系统模式等不同阶段,自主发展了具有中国特色的大气环境模式,改进完善了国际先进的大气环境模式,在大气污染防治与管控、重大活动环境保障和气候变化应对等方面发挥了重要作用.未来需要进一步加强大气污染形成机理在模式的应用研究、排放清单反演和动态源排放模式研发、多源观测资料与大气环境模式融合、集合预报技术研发、非结构网格系统研发、基于人工智能的环境大模型研发,全面提升我国大气环境模式的整体性能,积极推进我国大气环境模式的开源化和国际化.This article offers a comprehensive overview of the history and key features of China’s atmospheric environment models,and also discusses the potential future research directions in this field.Since the 1960s,China has been engaged in the development and application study of atmospheric environment models,which have gone through different stages including transport diffusion models,acid deposition models,air quality models,climate-chemistry coupled models,and earth system models.China has developed its own atmospheric environment models with unique characteristics,improved international advanced models,and played a significant role in pollution prevention,environmental protection for major events,and climate change response.In the future,to improve the performance of atmospheric environment models in China and promote its open-source,more studies are required to focus on the formation mechanism of air pollution in model,retrieval of emission inventory,as well as development of dynamical emission model,multi-source observational data assimilation technique,ensemble forecast technique,unstructured grid system,and environment model based on artificial intelligence.

关 键 词：输送扩散模式 酸沉降模式 空气质量模式 气候-化学耦合模式 地球系统模式 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]