四种气象数据在福岛核事故^(137)Cs扩散模拟中的适用性  

Applicability of four types of meteorological data to Fukushima nuclear accident^(137)Cs simulations

作　　者：李幻婷 杨力 宋嘉悦 李新鹏 方晟[2] LI Huan-ting;YANG Li;SONG Jia-yue;LI Xin-peng;FANG Sheng(School of Nuclear Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学核科学与工程学院,北京102206 [2]清华大学,核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第11期6025-6035,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(12105103);国家自然科学基金面上项目(12275152);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2024MS045);北京市自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(JQ23011);中国核工业集团有限公司领创研究项目。

摘　　要：基于福岛第一核电站事故,采用4种不同来源的气象数据(FNL再分析数据、ERA-Interim再分析数据、GFS分析和预报数据以及MEA现场气象观测数据)驱动组合大气扩散模型(区域尺度气象模型WRF和拉格朗日粒子扩散模型FLEXPART),开展放射性污染物^(137)Cs的扩散模拟,并结合双葉町以及楢叶町两个监测站的监测数据,评估了不同气象数据对扩散结果的影响.模拟显示,应用4种气象数据均使得FLEXPART成功再现了2个监测站大部分峰值(双葉町平均FAC10:0.57;楢叶町平均FAC10:0.58).其中,使用ERA-Interim和MEA的结果复现了更多的观测峰值并取得了较满意的统计指标.污染物浓度分布结果显示,4种气象的模拟结果在分布趋势上略有不同,ERA-Interim和MEA的结果烟羽扩散范围较广.因此,建议应用ERA-Interim和MEA以重建福岛核事故局地尺度放射性核素污染水平场.The local-scale atmospheric transport of ^(137)Cs following the Fukushima accident was investigated using ensemble modelling based on four different meteorological inputs(FNL reanalysis data,ERA-Interim reanalysis data,GFS analysis and forecast data,and MEA field meteorological observations data).Two different types of atmospheric transport model were used,i.e.,regional-scale meteorological model WRF and Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART.The influence of different meteorological data was evaluated based on the monitoring data from two monitoring stations in Futaba and Naraha.The simulations showed that FLEXPART successfully reproduced most of the peaks at both stations using all four types of meteorological data(average FAC10 of Futaba:0.57;average FAC10 of Naraha:0.58).The simulations using ERA-Interim and MEA reproduce more peak observations and achieve more satisfactory statistical metrics than the others.The simulated spatial^(137)Cs distribution using four meteorological data were slightly different.The results of ERA-Interim and MEA showed a wider range of plumes,better reproducing the observations.Therefore,ERA-Interim and MEA are recommended for simulating the atmospheric ^(137)Cs transport following the Fukushima nuclear accident at local scale.

关 键 词：放射性核素扩散 应急响应 WRF预报 FLEXPART 放射性核素浓度计算 

分 类 号：X591[环境科学与工程—环境工程]