碳排放权交易对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响及溢出效应研究  

Study on the Influence and Spillover Effect of Carbon Emissions Trading on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity

作　　者：田风霞 张瑞 TIAN Fengxia;ZHANG Rui(College of Economics and Management,Tongren University,Tongren 554300,China;Rural Revitalization Research Center,Tongren University,Tongren 554300,China)

机构地区：[1]铜仁学院经济管理学院,贵州铜仁554300 [2]铜仁学院乡村振兴研究中心,贵州铜仁554300

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期119-127,共9页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)

基　　金：铜仁学院博士科研启动基金项目“西南喀斯特坡地土壤丰量及与植被的关系研究”(trxyDH1808);贵州省科技计划项目“贵州石漠化治理对岩溶碳汇的影响研究”(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]一般465);贵州省高校哲学社会科学实验室“黔东农业(村)发展与生态治理实验室”(黔教哲[2023]07号)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标指导下,中国农业绿色转型取得积极进展。文章基于2000—2022年中国30个省区市的面板数据,运用EBM-GML法测算农业绿色全要素生产率(AGTFP),在采用莫兰指数法检验其空间相关性的基础上,从农业碳排放视角构建空间双重差分模型,探究碳排放权交易政策的实施对AGTFP的影响及其溢出效应。结果表明:(1)研究期间AGTFP持续增长,农业技术进步是农业绿色发展的主要动力;(2)碳排放权交易政策的实施对试点地区的AGTFP具有促进作用,且对邻近地区具有显著的正向空间溢出效应;(3)农业种植结构、经济发展水平、城镇化水平和创新水平对AGTFP的增长具有促进作用,但创新水平对邻近地区存在负向空间溢出效应,农业机械化水平、工业化水平对AGTFP的增长具有抑制作用。研究结果可为我国实现农业经济持续高速增长和农业绿色发展的双重目标提供有益的理论参考和经验证据。Under the guidance of the“dual carbon”strategic goal,China’s agricultural green transformation development has been made positive progress.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from China between 2000 to 2022,this paper used EBM-GML method to estimate the agricultural green total factor productivity(AGTFP)firstly,and then tested its spatial correlation with the Moran index.More attention has been further paid to the spillover effects of the implementation of carbon emission trading policy on AGTFP with the perspective of spatial analysis on agricultural carbon emissions by Difference-in-Difference Estimation.The results showed that:(1)AGTFP continued to increase during the study period,and agricultural technology progress was the main driving force of agricultural green development;(2)The implementation of the carbon emission trading policy could promote the AGTFP in the pilot area,and had a significant positive spatial spillover effect on neigh-boring areas;(3)Agricultural planting structure,economic development level,urbanization level and innovation level could promote the growth of AGTFP,but innovation level had a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions,and agricultural mechanization level and industrialization level could inhibit the growth of AGTFP.The results could provide useful theoretical reference and empirical evidence for realizing the dual goals of sustained rapid growth of agricultural economy and green development of agriculture in China.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易政策 农业绿色全要素生产率 空间溢出效应 空间双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]