Impacts of spatially inconsistent permafrost degradation on streamflow in the Lena River Basin  

作　　者：XUE ZeHuan WANG YiChu ZHAO Yi LI DongDeng BORTHWICK Alistair George Liam 

机构地区：[1]The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [2]College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China [4]State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Materials Fluxes in River Ecosystems,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [5]School of Engineering,The University of Edinburgh,Edinburgh EH93JL,United Kingdom [6]School of Engineering,Computing and Mathematics,University of Plymouth,Plymouth PL48AA,United Kingdom

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》2024年第11期3559-3570,共12页中国科学（技术科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52109075, U2243201, and 92047303);Open Fund Research at the State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering (Grant No. SKHL2220)。

摘　　要：Although permafrost degradation contributes significantly to hydrological change in cold regions, gaps remain in our understanding of streamflow variation induced by degrading permafrost in different river basins. We therefore used a deep learning model to simulate the long-term(≥ 30 years) monthly streamflow at 60 hydrological stations along the Lena River, the third longest circum-Arctic river. Analyzing the effects of precipitation, temperature, and thaw depth on streamflow variation throughout the Lena River Basin, we identified two feedback patterns relating streamflow to warming permafrost, observed in areas of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. In northern plain regions with continuous permafrost, 94% of stations presented an increasing trend in annual streamflow from the 1900s to the 2010s due to permafrost degradation. The enhanced streamflow was mainly due to increased meltwater in the flood season. In southern regions covered by both continuous and discontinuous permafrost, approximately 38% of stations exhibited a declining trend in annual streamflow in response to permafrost degradation, with a high proportion(61%) located in mountain regions(elevation ≥ 500 m). The decline is attributed to the enhanced infiltration capacity of thawing frozen layers within discontinuous permafrost regions. Our study provides new insights into the mechanisms behind permafrost degradation-induced streamflow variation and highlights the importance of formulating tailored strategies for sustainable river management in cold regions experiencing climate change.

关 键 词：permafrost degradation streamflow variation deep learning model climate change large cold basin 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P642.14[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV121