低碳交通与交通治堵非协调耦合关系识别研究  

Identification of Uncoordinated Coupling Relationship between Low-Carbon Transportation and Traffic Congestion Management

作　　者：周佳欣 刘魏巍[1] Jiaxin Zhou;Weiwei Liu(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2024年第5期571-581,共11页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：以2022年拥堵前十的城市群2013~2022年的低碳交通与交通治堵协调耦合关系为研究对象,构建低碳交通与交通治堵的评价指标体系,依据判定标准对其进行识别。结果表明:1)随着社会不断发展,城市群的低碳交通水平都有不同幅度的提升且整体低碳交通的发展水平较快,交通治堵水平的提升相对缓慢但整体增长向好;2)交通治堵与低碳交通的协调耦合关系具有明显的阶段性特征,且不同类型城市的阶段性特征有所区别,分别经历了低水平协调耦合、拮抗阶段和磨合阶段,一线拥堵城市在2013~2018年左右处于磨合非协调耦合阶段,在2018年以后慢慢转向拮抗非协调耦合阶段,2022年以后已经开始由协调逐步向高水平协调耦合迈进;新一线城市群也在2021年前后进入了拮抗阶段;虽然近期两者的协调耦合关系整体向好,但离高水平的协调耦合关系仍任重道远;二线城市整体还是处于磨合阶段,未来几年预测会步入拮抗阶段。Taking the coordinated coupling relationship between low-carbon transportation and traffic congestion of the top ten congested city clusters from 2013 to 2022 as the research object,we constructed the evaluation index system of low-carbon transportation and traffic congestion,and identified them based on the judgment criteria.The results show that:1)With the continuous development of society,the level of low-carbon transportation in urban agglomerations has different magnitudes of improvement and the overall level of development of low-carbon transportation is faster,the level of traffic congestion is relatively slow to improve but the overall growth is good;2)The coordination and coupling relationship between traffic congestion and low-carbon transportation has obvious stage characteristics,and different types of cities have different stage characteristics,respectively,have experienced the coordination and coupling of the low level,antagonistic stage and grinding stage,firsttier congested cities were in the grinding non-coordinated coupling stage around 2013~2018,after 2018 slowly turned to antagonistic non-coordinated coupling stage,after 2022 have begun to gradually move from the coordination to the high level of coordinated coupling;the new first-tier city clusters also entered the antagonistic stage before and after 2021.Although the overall coordination and coupling relationship between the two has been improving recently,there is still a long way to go before a high-level coordination and coupling relationship;second-tier cities are still in the teething stage as a whole,and are predicted to enter the antagonistic stage in the next few years.

关 键 词：低碳交通 交通治堵 城市群 非协调耦合 判别 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]