近30年广东省降雨集中度时空分布特征及其影响因素分析  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Rainfall Concentration in Guangdong Province in Recent 30 Years Under Changing Environment

作　　者：罗柱 牛亚朝 付志君 LUO Zhu;NIU Yachao;FU Zhijun(Guangdong Jianke Yuansheng Engineering Inspection Co.,Ltd.,Dongguan 523710,China)

机构地区：[1]广东建科源胜工程检测有限公司,广东东莞523710

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第11期38-42,60,共6页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：研究降雨集中度的时空分布特征可为水资源管理、预防洪涝灾害提供重要的理论依据。该文以广东省为研究区域,分析月降雨集中度的时空分布特征,采用Theil-Sen Median分析和Mann-Kendall检验探究降雨集中度的变化趋势特征,使用M-K突变点检验识别出降雨集中度的突变点,基于交叉小波分析,揭示影响显著性变化区域降雨集中度时空分布特征的驱动力因素,结果表明:1991—2022年间降雨量空间分布呈现出中西部降雨较多,东北部降雨较少的特点,整体呈现出“V”型波动;广东省降雨在年内分布具有明显的季节性,研究区的降雨集中度呈现出不显著增加的趋势,在粤西地区呈现出减少趋势;粤西地区的降雨集中度受到大气环流异常因子的显著影响,其中以北极涛动(AO)的影响最为明显。Studying the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall concentration can provide important theoretical basis for water resources management and flood prevention.The paper takes Guangdong Province as the study area,analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of monthly rainfall concentration,uses Theil-Sen Median analysis and Mann-Kendall test to explore the trend characteristics of rainfall concentration,and uses the M-K mutation point test to identify the mutation points of rainfall concentration,and reveals the driving factors affecting the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall concentration in the region of significance change based on the cross-wavelet analysis.The results show that the spatial distribution of rainfall between 1991 and 2022 is characterized by more rainfall in the central and western part of the country and less rainfall in the northeastern part of the country,with an overall“V”type fluctuation;rainfall in Guangdong Province has obvious seasonality in its distribution within the year,and the concentration of rainfall in the study area shows a non-significant increase in rainfall concentration in the western part of Guangdong Province and a decreasing trend in rainfall concentration in the western part of Guangdong Province.The rainfall concentration in the western part of Guangdong Province is significantly affected by atmospheric circulation anomalies,among which the Arctic Oscillation(AO)has the most significant influence.

关 键 词：降雨集中度 交叉小波 Theil-Sen Median分析 M-K检验 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]