一次江淮气旋引起的区域大暴雨可预报性分析及模式检验  

Predictability Analysis and Model Verification of a Regional Rainstorm Caused by a Jianghuai Cyclone

作　　者：梁钰[1,2] 张亚春 董俊玲 席乐 李可 LIANG Yu;ZHANG Yachun;DONG Junling;XI Le;LI Ke(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局•河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《河南科学》2024年第11期1644-1652,共9页Henan Science

基　　金：中国气象局预报复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-078);河南省2024年科技攻关项目(242102320038);海河流域气象科技创新项目(HHXM202409);河南省气象局青年项目(KQ202205)。

摘　　要：利用常规观测资料和逐6 h的ERA5空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的再分析资料及数值产品,采用天气学分析和物理量诊断等方法,对河南2020年6月一次江淮气旋区域大暴雨的可预报性进行分析.结果表明:(1)强降水主要出现在850 hPa低涡前部西南急流出口区顶部和切变线两侧50~100 km的重叠区域内、地面气旋辐合线附近及左侧冷暖空气交汇处,以冷区降水为主.(2)水汽和动力条件均具有极端性,PWAT、Q850、Qu850、垂直上升运动速度值均超过了河南各类型100 mm以上强降水统计阈值.(3)850 hPa低涡的移动方向和地面3 h负变压中心移动方向对地面气旋的移动有引导作用,负变压中心较气旋中心出现时间早12 h左右.(4)数值模式EC在24~240 h内、CMA-GFS在24~168 h内晴雨准确率和小雨量级TS评分>0.8,暴雨及以下量级的降水TS评分24~72 h内CMA-GFS优于EC,96 h后CMA-GFS低于EC.(5)EC和CMA-GFS强降水落区较实况偏北0.7~0.8个纬度.By using the conventional observation data,6 h ERA5 reanalysis data of 0.25°×0.25°and numeric forecasting products,the predictability of a regional rainstorm caused by Jianghuai cyclone occurred in Henan Province in June 2020 was analyzed by means of synoptic analysis and physical quantity diagnosis.The results show that:①The heavy precipitation mainly occurs in the overlapping area between the top of the southwest jet stream outlet area in front of the 850 hPa vortex and both sides of the shear line within a range of 50-100 km,near the surface cyclone convergence line and the intersection of cold and warm air on the left side,and the precipitation is mainly in the cold area.②The water vapor and dynamic conditions in this precipitation are obviously extreme,and the values of PWAT,Q850,Qu850 and vertical ascending motion velocity all exceed the statistical threshold of all types of heavy precipitation above 100 mm in Henan.③The movement direction of the 850 hPa vortex and the movement direction of the 3 h surface katallobar center have a guiding effect on the movement of the surface cyclone,and the katallobar center appears about 12 h earlier than the cyclone center.④The accuracy rate of rain or sunny and the TS score of light rain are above 0.8 in EC within 24-240 h and CMA-GFS within 24-168 h,the TS score of CMA-GFS in heavy rain and rainfall below is better than EC within 24-72 h and lower than EC after 96 h.⑤The heavy precipitation forecasting areas of EC and CMA-GFS are 0.7~0.8 latitudes north than the actual situation.

关 键 词：江淮气旋 低涡 区域性大暴雨 切变线 模式检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458