中国耕地集约利用度驱动因素研究  

Study on Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Intensive Utilization in China

作　　者：丁艳喜 张云龙 吴佩佩 罗晓虎 李言言 孟庆香[3] DING Yanxi;ZHANG Yunlong;WU Peipei;LUO Xiaohu;LI Yanyan;MENG Qingxiang(Henan Institute of Geophysical Spatial Information Co.Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450000,China;Henan Science and Technology Innovation Center for Natural Resources(Research on the Technology of Intelligent Investigation and Monitoring),Zhengzhou 450000,China;College of Recourse and Environment,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地球物理空间信息研究院有限公司,郑州450000 [2]河南省自然资源科技创新中心(智能调查监测技术研究),郑州450000 [3]河南农业大学资源与环境学院,郑州450000

出　　处：《河南科学》2024年第11期1681-1690,共10页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42371314);河南省自然科学基金(222300420465)。

摘　　要：基于1978—2020年数据,利用GA-BP神经网络模型对耕地集约度利用进行定量评价,在协整分析的基础上,结合向量误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解,揭示了耕地集约利用度与各驱动因素之间的长期均衡关系和短期作用机制.结果表明:(1)耕地集约利用度和自然灾害、农民收入、农业科技进步、财政支农、劳动力转移存在长期均衡关系.(2)农业科技进步对耕地集约利用度有显著正向影响,而农业灾害面积短期会对耕地集约利用度会产生负向影响.(3)劳动力转移和农民收入对耕地集约利用度的影响呈现先抑后扬的特点,而财政支农则呈现出先扬后抑的特点.基于模型分析,提出了提高耕地集约利用度及保障国家粮食安全的对策建议.Based on the relevant data from 1978 to 2020,the levels of cultivated land intensive utilization were conducted by using GA-BP neural network model.Based on the cointegration analysis,combined with vector error correction model,generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition,the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term mechanism between cultivated land intensive utilization degree and driving factors were revealed.The results demonstrate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between cultivated land intensive utilization and natural disasters,farmers’income,agricultural technological progress,financial support for agriculture and labor transfer.The progress of agricultural technological plays a vital role in promoting the intensive use of cultivated land in China.The impact of natural disasters on cultivated land intensive utilization in the short term is generally negative.The impact of farmers’income and labor transfer on cultivated land intensive utilization shows a trend of first decrease and then increase,while the impact of financial support for agriculture shows the characteristic of first increase and then decrease.Finally,combined with the results of model analysis,the paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for improving cultivated land intensive utilization and ensuring national food security.

关 键 词：耕地集约利用 GA-BP神经网络 协整分析 向量误差修正模型 广义脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]