基于系统动力学模型的山东省水资源生态足迹预测  

Water Resources Ecological Footprint Prediction in Shandong Province Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：陈益平[1] 秦欢欢 黄丽想 王健泉 陈凡 CHEN Yi-ping;QIN Huan-huan;HUANG Li-xiang;WANG Jian-quan;CHEN Fan(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室,南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学水资源与环境工程学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2024年第11期39-45,53,共8页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：核资源与环境国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2022NRE11)。

摘　　要：在资源环境可持续发展和生态文明建设得到重视的时代,水资源的供需均衡是衡量一个区域社会经济发展的重要因素,而与水资源有关的生态足迹相关概念被越来越多的专家和学者所采用,是一个具有关键意义的衡量指标。然而,在这方面的研究中,现有学者主要集中于现状的分析与探讨,缺乏对未来的预测。经济蓬勃、人口稠密的山东省存在由于社会经济的快速发展而导致的水资源供需紧张的问题,亟需寻求保障水资源和社会经济协调发展的可持续方案。根据水资源生态足迹模型和山东省水资源供需系统动力学模型,设计SD1 (维持现状)、SD2(发展经济)、SD3 (节约用水)和SD4 (综合开发)等情景对2022-2050年山东省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测。结果表明,2022-2050年情景SD1~SD4下山东省水资源的人均生态足迹的平均数值分别为0.408、0.447、0.319和0.412 hm^(2)/人,水资源的人均生态承载力的平均数值都为0.130 hm^(2)/人,由此导致0.278、0.317、0.189和0.282 hm^(2)/人的人均水资源生态亏损;水资源生态压力指数和水资源生态经济协调指数均值分别为3.149、3.458、2.466和3.188及1.257、1.242、1.304和1.259,山东省未来情景下水资源利用压力较大,不安全利用的状态将会持续。从水资源生态足迹的角度对4种情景进行比较,综合发展型情景SD4具有合适的评价指标,既能保证经济发展,也能减少水资源利用的不安全程度,山东省未来发展应采取此类情景,但同时要提高各行业用水效率、加强全社会节水意识,既“开源”又“节流”,才能保障水资源的可持续发展。In an era that values sustainable development and ecological civilization,the supply-demand balance of water resources is an important factor in measuring the social and economic development of a region.The concept of water resource ecological footprint is increasingly adopted by more and more experts and scholars and is a key indicator of measurement.However,in this area of research,existing scholars mainly focus on analyzing and exploring the current situation,lacking predictions for the future.Shandong Province,which is economically prosperous and densely populated,faces the problem of tight water supply and demand due to rapid socio-economic development.It is urgent to seek sustainable solutions to ensure the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic development.Based on the water resources ecological footprint and system dynamics model of water supply and demand in Shandong Province,scenarios such as SD1(maintaining the status quo),SD2(developing the economy),SD3(saving water),and SD4(comprehensive development)were designed to predict the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2050.The results show that the average values of per capita water resources ecological footprint under the four scenarios from 2022 to 2050 are 0.408,0.447,0.319 and 0.412 hm^(2)/capita respectively,and the average values of per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity in all scenarios is 0.130 hm^(2)/capita,resulting in per capita water resources ecological loss of 0.278,0.317,0.189 and 0.282 hm^(2)/capita.The average values of water resources ecological pressure index and ecological economic coordination index under the four scenarios are 3.149,3.458,2.466 and 3.180,and 1.257,1.242,1.304 and 1.259 respectively.The water resources utilization pressure in Shandong Province in the future is large and the pressure and the state of unsafe utilization of water resources will continue.When comparing the four scenarios from the perspective of water resour

关 键 词：水资源生态足迹与承载力 系统动力学 生态足迹模型 生态亏损 情景 预测 山东省 

分 类 号：S2[农业科学—农业工程] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]