皖西大别山革命老区返贫风险评估——基于三县区农户的调查  

Risk Assessmenton Returning to Poverty in Dabie Mountains Old Revolutionary Base Area of West Anhui:Based on the Survey of Farmers in Three Counties and Districts

作　　者：孙鲁云 赵攀 周本达[1,2,3] SUN Luyun;ZHAO Pan;ZHOU Benda(College of Finance and Mathematics,West Anhui University,Lu'an 237012,China;Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Data Intelligence and Rural Revitalization of Dabie Mountains,West Anhui University,Lu'an 237012,China;Anhui Engineering Research Center for Eco-agriculture of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lu'an 237012,China)

机构地区：[1]皖西学院金融与数学学院,安徽六安237012 [2]皖西学院数据智能与大别山乡村振兴安徽省哲学社会科学重点实验室,安徽六安237012 [3]安徽省中药生态农业工程技术研究中心,安徽六安237012

出　　处：《皖西学院学报》2024年第5期33-39,共7页Journal of West Anhui University

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(2108085QG306);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2022D081);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(23YJA630143);安徽省高等学校科学研究项目(SK2021ZD0075,2024AH051995)。

摘　　要：脱贫地区返贫风险评估对当前巩固脱贫攻坚成果具有重要意义。从生计资本和农户返贫风险感知两个维度构建脱贫地区返贫风险评估体系,利用皖西大别山革命老区三县区农户调研数据,实证评估了农户返贫风险,并分析了农户返贫风险的异质性。研究表明:(1)皖西大别山革命老区三县区农户返贫风险指数为0.227,处于较低水平。五大生计资本中,人力资本脆弱导致的返贫风险最高;七大返贫原因中,农户对因外出打工困难返贫感知最强。(2)农户生计资本与感知返贫风险密切相关,能够共同反映脱贫地区返贫风险的现实状态。(3)脱贫地区农户返贫风险在县区、农户类型、脱贫时间、致贫原因等方面都具有明显的异质性。The risk assessment of returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas is of great significance to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.The risk assessment system of returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas is constructed from two dimensions:livelihood capital and farmers risk perception of returning to poverty.Based on the survey data of farmers in three counties of Dabie Mountains old revolutionary base area of West Anhui,the risk of returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas is empirically evaluated,and the heterogeneity of farmers risk is analyzed.The research shows that:(1)The risk index of farmers returning to poverty in three counties of Dabie Mountain old revolutionary base area of West Anhui is 0.227,which is at a low level.Among the five major livelihood capitals,the vulnerability of human capital leads to the highest risk of returning to poverty;Among the seven reasons for returning to poverty,farmers have the strongest perception of returning to poverty because of the difficulty of going out to work.(2)Farmers livelihood capital is closely related to the perceived risk of returning to poverty,which can jointly reflect the reality of the risk of returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas.(3)The risk of farmers returning to poverty in poverty-stricken areas has obvious heterogeneity in counties,types of farmers,time of poverty alleviation and causes of poverty.

关 键 词：可持续生计 农户感知 返贫风险 革命老区 大别山区 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]