基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的城市智慧交通动态发展评价  

The Evaluation of Dynamic Development of Urban Smart Transportation Based on the DPSIR-TOPSIS Model

作　　者：高鑫[1] 刘洁[1] 石振武[1] 王金茹 GAO Xin;LIU Jie;SHI Zhenwu;WANG Jinru(College of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《森林工程》2024年第6期175-184,共10页Forest Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2572023AW76);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(YQ2020G001);黑龙江省博士后科研启动金项目(LBH-Q21054)。

摘　　要：为系统分析人类活动对交通环境的影响,科学评估智慧交通发展水平,并准确识别城市交通运输行业在智慧化转型过程中的影响因素,基于DPSIR(drivers pressures state impact response)模型构建智慧交通发展评价指标体系,评估北京市2013—2022年智慧交通发展水平的动态变化,识别影响城市智慧交通发展的限制性因素。研究结果显示,1)2013—2022年北京市智慧交通综合发展水平持续上升,呈现整体改善趋势;2)北京市智慧交通驱动力和响应子系统的发展程度整体呈下降趋势,压力、状态和影响子系统的发展程度整体呈上升趋势;3)2013—2018年,影响北京市智慧交通发展的主要因素为路口电子警察安装数、高峰时段市民平均出行时耗等,2019—2022年,交通运输网络建设密度、人口密度、汽车社会公共停车泊位数成为主要因素。为此,提出加强智慧交通自身造血能力、提升供给侧水平以及推动城市交通向智能低碳转型等建议,以针对北京市智慧交通治理的短板因素进行改进。To systematically analyze the impact of human activities on the transportation environment,scientifically assess the level of smart transportation development,and accurately identify the influencing factors of the urban transportation industry in the pro⁃cess of smart transformation,we construct a smart transportation development evaluation index system based on the DPSIR(drivers pressures state impact response)model,evaluate the dynamic changes in the level of smart transportation development in Beijing from^(2)013—2022,and identify the limiting factors affecting the development of urban smart transportation.The results of the study show that,1)the comprehensive development level of smart transportation in Beijing continues to rise from^(2)013—2022,showing an over⁃all improvement trend;2)the development level of the driving force and response subsystems of smart transportation in Beijing shows an overall decreasing trend,and the development level of the pressure,state and influence subsystems shows an overall increasing trend;3)in 2013—2018,the main factors affecting the development of smart transportation in Beijing are the number of electronic po⁃lice installations at intersections and the average travel time consumption of citizens during peak hours,in 2019—2022,the density of transportation network construction,population density,and the number of public parking spaces for automobile societies become the main factors.Therefore,suggestions are made to strengthen the smart transportation′s own hematopoietic ability,improve the supply side level,and promote the transformation of urban transportation to smart and low-carbon,in order to make improvements for the short-board factors of Beijing′s smart transportation governance.

关 键 词：智慧交通 高质量发展 DPSIR-TOPSIS模型 障碍度模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F570.3[经济管理—产业经济]