激励还是惩罚:延长产假对中国生育水平的影响研究  

Incentive or Punishment:The Effect of Extended Maternity Leave on Fertility Level in China

作　　者：童玉芬[1] 杜旭 TONG Yufen;DU Xu(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing,100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第6期5-18,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:从人口发展新常态到人口高质量发展的引领机制与实现路径研究(24ARK001)。

摘　　要：在我国生育率持续低迷,人口已经进入负增长的背景下,积极的生育支持政策成为重要的政策选择,而生育休假制度的建立与完善则是积极生育支持政策的重要内容。研究产假天数的设置与生育水平之间的关系对于完善生育休假制度具有重大意义。文章在延长产假的政策背景和特征事实的分析基础上,借鉴哈威·莱宾斯坦的生育孩子合理选择理论,分析产假设置及长度对女性生育决策的影响机制,提出产假长度与生育水平之间可能存在的非线性倒“U”型关系理论假设,并使用2010—2022年30个省(区、市)层面的产假天数、生育水平以及社会经济等数据,通过采用多元回归分析中的固定效应模型,就产假天数对生育水平的影响进行实证检验。研究发现:产假天数延长与生育水平的变化有显著的相关关系;受到延长产假对女性生育的正向补偿和负向成本的双重作用,产假延长与生育水平之间并不是简单的线性关系,而是呈现非线性倒“U”型关系,即初始阶段产假的设置和延长有利于生育水平的提升,但到一定程度之后,产假的延长将会抑制生育水平的提高;通过定量模型测算,最有利于我国生育水平提升的适度产假天数介于123~130天之间。上述结果均通过了稳健性检验。文章提出如下政策建议:第一,各省(区、市)在生育休假制度的设置中要避免继续延长产假,警惕和避免产假过长对女性生育的“反向惩罚”。第二,将总产假天数设置为128天,这不仅符合研究结果中最有利于生育水平提升的区间,而且也符合2000年国际劳工组织的建议,同时也与大多数国家(地区)的产假时长比较接近。第三,建议将现有各省(区、市)设置的产假天数中超过128天之上的30天生育奖励假(延长产假)从产假中剥离,将其置换成女性育儿假,同时将配偶的育儿假增补到30天,体现父母共同育儿责任,降低劳�In the context of persistently low fertility rates and negative population growth,the implementa⁃tion of proactive fertility support policies has emerged as a crucial policy choice.A key component of these policies is the establishment and enhancement of the childbirth leave system.Notably,investigating the relationship between the duration of maternity leave and fertility level,as well as determining an optimal length for such leave,holds significant implications for the perfection of the childbirth leave system.Based on the analysis of the policy background and characteristic facts of extended maternity leave,this paper draws upon Leibenstein H′s reasonable choice theory of childbearing,and theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of maternity leave setting and length on women′s reproductive decision.The possible nonlinear inverse"U"-shaped relationship between maternity leave length and fertility level is proposed.Utilizing data on maternity leave days,fertility rates,and socioeconomic factors across 30 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions from 2010 to 2022,this paper empirically tested the influence of maternity leave days on fertility level by using the fixed effect model in multiple regression analysis.The findings indicate that:there exists a significant correlation between maternity leave length and fluctuations in fertility level.Due to the dual effects of positive compensation and negative costs of extended maternity leave on women′s fertility,the relationship is not linear but rather exhibits an inverse"U"shape-initially promoting higher fertility rates up to a certain point before inhibiting further improvements beyond that threshold.Guantitative modeling suggests that an optimal range for enhancing national fertility levels lies between 123~130 days of maternity leave.All the above results have passed robustness test.Consequently,several policy recommendations are proposed:first,all provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions should refrain from extending maternal leaves

关 键 词：生育休假制度 延长产假 生育水平 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]