中国人口出生率的社会成因与驱动机理  

The Social Causes and Driving Mechanisms of Birth Rate in China

作　　者：闫超[1] 霍子蓬 YAN Chao;HUO Zipeng(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第6期19-35,共17页Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学一般项目:非线性混频动态随机一般均衡模型在中国第三产业结构演进与升级研究中的应用研究(21YJC790136);吉林省社会科学基金项目:吉林省新生代农民工消费行为研究(2021B82)。

摘　　要：伴随着中国式现代化的全面推进,“低生育率陷阱”对中国经济社会的各个方面都将产生深远影响,缓解劳动力资源短缺问题是未来中国经济发展的重大挑战,提高人口出生率已成为中国特色社会主义建设中势在必行的时代任务。本文从家庭收入、家庭支出、物价波动以及城镇化发展等四维度,选取人均收入、基尼系数、床位数、人均教育支出、房价、CPI以及城镇化率等七个影响因素,通过构建非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果-向量误差修正(MSC-VEC)模型,以期准确识别中国人口出生率的社会成因,进而在区制转移因果视域下深入剖析不同时代背景下中国人口出生率的驱动机理,为提高出生率的精准施策提供翔实可靠的参考依据。研究发现:对家庭收入来说,增加人均收入有利于出生率的提高,而基尼系数上升往往对出生率存在较为显著的负向影响作用,同时出生率在短期内也能够影响人均收入。就时变动态因果关系而言,人均收入与出生率在部分区间内存在显著的双向因果作用关系,出生率在较长时域范围内能够对人均收入产生显著的单向影响。而基尼系数与出生率在较长时间内具有显著的双向因果作用关系,但在2005—2009年间基尼系数对出生率产生了显著的单向影响作用。对家庭支出来说,从长期来看,医疗条件进步有利于出生率的提高,房价下调也会对提高出生率具有促进作用,而出生率会对人均教育支出产生显著影响。由区制概率转移轨迹图可以发现,从1995年起,教育支出在较长时域内对出生率产生了显著的单向影响。从1994年起,购房支出也在较长时域内对出生率产生了显著的单向影响。对物价波动来说,从长期看,CPI上升对出生率存在较为显著的负向影响作用。1995—2011年CPI与出生率之间存在显著的双向因果作用关系,而从2012年开始CPI对出生率产生了显�With the comprehensive promotion of Chinese style modernization,the"low fertility trap"will have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of China′s economy and society.Alleviating the shortage of labor resources is a major challenge for China′s economic development in the future.Therefore,improving the birth rate has become an imperative task in the construction of socialism with Chinese characteristics.Starting from the four dimensions of family income,family expenditure,price fluctuation and urbanization development,this paper selects seven influencing factors such as per capita income,Gini coefficient,number of beds,per capita education expenditure,house price,CPI and urbanization rate,and constructs a nonlinear Markov regime transition causality vector error correction(MSC-VEC)model,in order to accurately identify the social causes of birth rate,and then analyzes the driving mechanism of birth rate in different historical backgrounds from the perspective of regime transition causality,so as to provide a detailed and reliable reference for the precise implementation of measures to improve the birth rate in China.The results show that:(1)For family income,increasing per capita income is conducive to the increase of the birth rate,while the rise of Gini coefficient often has a significant negative effect on the birth rate.At the same time,the birth rate can also affect per capita income in the short term.In terms of time varying dynamic causality,there is a significant two-way causality between per capita income and birth rate in some regions,and birth rate can have a significant one-way impact on per capita income in a long-time domain.The Gini coefficient and the birth rate have a significant two-way causal relationship for a long time,but from 2005 to 2009,the Gini coefficient has a significant one-way impact on the birth rate.(2)For household expenditure,in the long run,the improvement of medical conditions is conducive to the increase of the birth rate,and the reduction of house prices will also promote th

关 键 词：中国人口出生率 社会成因 MSC-VEC模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]