婚姻挤压对初婚年龄的影响  

The Influence of Marriage Squeeze on Age at First Marriage in China

作　　者：陈卫[1] 欧阳柏慧 刘金菊[3] CHEN Wei;OUYANG Baihui;LIU Jinju(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;Department of Public Administration,Beijing City University,Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872 [3]北京城市学院公共管理学部,北京100083

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第6期36-48,共13页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:新时代中国人口发展战略研究(22AZD083);教育部人文社会科学基地重大项目:中国的婚育转变、人口新形态与积极应对策略(20231JY0051);国家社会科学基金项目:中国人口迁移转变趋势与特征研究(22BRK09)。

摘　　要：在异性婚姻中,当两性婚龄人口数量出现较大差异时,就可能导致某种性别的人口在婚姻市场上难以找到配偶,表现为婚姻挤压。自20世纪80年代后期以来,中国的出生性别比呈现长时间且较为严重的失衡状态,而这些出生人群于2010年前后陆续开始步入婚姻。与此同时,中国初婚年龄推迟的速度显著加快。近10多年来初婚年龄的加速推迟与高出生性别比队列人口进入婚姻市场的时间基本一致。探讨高出生性别比队列人口进入婚姻市场导致的婚姻挤压在当今中国初婚推迟中所起到的作用,为解释中国初婚年龄加速推迟提供新的视角,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于2010年第六次全国人口普查、2015年全国1%人口抽样调查、2018年中国综合社会调查和2020年第七次全国人口普查微观数据,使用多层生存分析方法匹配宏微观数据,探讨婚姻挤压对个体初婚推迟的影响。将省份作为婚姻市场的单元,检验省级层面婚姻挤压程度对个体初婚年龄的影响。婚姻挤压使用考虑了夫妻年龄差的婚配性别比进行测量。研究发现省级婚姻挤压程度对个体初婚风险具有显著负向影响,即省级婚姻挤压程度越大,个体初婚风险越小、初婚年龄就越大。在其他因素不变的情况下,婚配性别比每上升0.1,个体初婚风险降低38.43%。对婚姻市场整体而言,随着婚配性别比提高,男女双方供需失衡加剧,婚姻失配导致婚姻挤压程度提高,婚姻的可获得性降低,从而使人们进入初婚的时间推迟。婚姻市场性别结构失衡是导致个体初婚推迟的重要因素。基于婚姻挤压对初婚年龄推迟具有显著影响的回归分析结果,可以认为近10多年来中国两性初婚年龄出现加速推迟也受到了婚姻挤压的影响。中国20世纪90年代性别比失衡不断加剧,21世纪初性别比失衡处于高位态势,因此近10多年来的婚姻挤压也在不断加�In heterosexual marriages,significant disparities in the number of eligible individuals from each gender group can lead to a situation where individuals of a particular gender are unable to find a spouse,resulting in a phenomenon known as marriage squeeze.China had skewed sex ratios at birth under the one-child policy since the late 1980s,and these birth cohorts were entering marriage since the early 2010s. Coincidently age at first marriage in China was postponing at a more rapid pace in the 2010s than in the previous decade. Thus,we hypothesize that marriage squeeze resulting from gender imbalance had significant impact on the intensified marriage postponement in China. This demographic perspective differs from the existing studies,which predominantly emphasize the importance of economic growth or higher education expansion in the speeding marriage delay. Utilizing data from the 2010 Sixth National Population Census,the 2015 1% National Population Sample Survey,the 2018 China General Social Survey,and the 2020 Seventh National Population Census,multilevel survival analysis is employed to examine the impact of marriage squeeze on the delay of first marriage at the individual level. Our analysis treats province as unit of marriage market,empirically examining the impact of the degree of marriage squeeze at the provincial level on the age at first marriage of individuals,with the macro-micro-matching strategy. Marriage squeeze is measured by matching sex ratio incorporating spouse age differences. The findings indicate that the degree of provincial-level marriage squeeze has a significant negative impact on the individual′s risk of delayed first marriage. Specifically,as the degree of provincial-level marriage squeeze increases,the individual′s risk of first marriage decreases,and the age at first marriage increases. Moreover,holding other factors constant,the risk of first marriage decreases by 38.43 percent for every 0.1 increase in the matching sex ratio. At the level of the entire marriage market,as the ma

关 键 词：婚姻挤压 婚配性别比 初婚风险 初婚年龄 多层生存分析 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]