经济发展水平对城镇人口规模的影响研究  

Research on Impact of Economic Development Level on Urban Population Size

作　　者：陈思怡 李志萌[1] 刘东 Chen Siyi;Li Zhimeng;Liu Dong

机构地区：[1]江西省社会科学院发展战略所,江西南昌330077

出　　处：《企业经济》2024年第7期120-128,共9页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：2023年江西省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目“绿色城镇化推进的机制、路径与对策建议”(项目编号:23ZXSKJD32);2021年国家社会科学基金项目“长江禁捕背景下湖区退捕渔民生计转型与可持续发展路径研究”(项目编号:21CSH019)。

摘　　要：城镇人口规模动态变化对于促进区域协调发展、构建新发展格局、形成新质生产力具有重要影响。在经济快速发展过程中,城镇人口规模的影响因素成为当前热点研究问题。本文构建了城市经济发展水平对城镇人口规模影响的整体分析框架,并验证了经济发展水平对城镇人口规模的影响机制。研究发现:城市经济发展水平对城镇人口规模的影响显著,且伴随着城镇人口规模的增加,这种影响系数呈现先上升后下降的趋势;城市经济发展水平通过影响第三产业发展水平、公共服务供给水平进而对城镇人口规模产生影响。据此,需引导城市发展优势产业、差异化定位城市功能、优化城市营商环境、促进要素空间合理布局、加快构建全国统一大市场,以促进人口空间优化布局、持续推动高质量发展。The dynamic change of urban population size has an important impact on promoting regional coordinated development,constructing new development pattern and forming new quality productivity.In the process of rapid economic development,the influencing factors of urban population size have become a hot research issue.This paper constructs an overall analysis framework of the influence of urban economic development level on urban population size,and verifies the influence mechanism of economic development level on urban population size.The results show that the level of urban economic development has a significant impact on the urban population size,and with the increase of urban population size,the influence coefficient shows a trend of rising first and then decreasing.The level of urban economic development affects the urban population size by influencing the development level of the tertiary industry and the supply level of public services.Accordingly,it is necessary to guide cities to develop competitive industries,differentiate urban functions,optimize urban business environment,promote rational distribution of factor space,and accelerate the construction of a unified national market,so as to optimize the distribution of population space and continuously promote high-quality development.

关 键 词：经济发展 城市人口规模 人口空间优化布局 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]