突发事件网络舆情主题转变路径及其风险评估  

Topic Transition Paths and Risk Assessment of Online Public Opinion in Public Emergencies

作　　者：周炜[1,2] 安璐 韩瑞莲[2] Zhou Wei;An Lu;Han Ruilian(Center for Studies of Information Resources,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;Institute of Data Intelligence,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学信息管理学院,武汉430072 [3]武汉大学数据智能研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《情报学报》2024年第10期1227-1241,共15页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“不确定环境下韧性社会智能情报支持与决策研究”(23&ZD230)。

摘　　要：探索突发事件网络舆情主题转变节点,并据此展开多阶段网络舆情风险评估,对精准处置突发事件网络舆情危机、提供动态舆情引导策略具有重要参考意义。本文提出一种突发事件情境下网络舆情主题转变路径识别及多阶段风险评估方法。首先,融合RoBERTa (robustly optimized BERT pretraining approach)模型提出时序语义-共词网络,并基于Louvain-CFDP (clustering by fast search and find of density peaks)算法进行网络社区主题发现;其次,提出主题状态转变检测模型,据此生成主题转变路径,识别并分析多类型转变路径及其风险波动特征。以“日本核污染水排海”事件为例进行实证分析,识别事件发展型、情绪集聚型及衍生事件型3种转变路径类型,分别对这3种类型路径的特点、风险特征及差异进行分析。研究结果表明,本文提出的主题转变路径及风险评估研究方法能够完整、全面地展现突发事件在社交媒体上的话题转变,为管理部门快速锁定高风险话题,制定精准、有效的舆情风险引导方案提供借鉴与参考。Exploring the topic transition nodes of online public opinion in public emergencies and conducting multi-phase risk assessments are of great significance for accurately addressing crises of online public opinion in these cases and providing dynamic guidance strategies.This paper proposes a method for identifying topic transition paths and conducting a multiphase risk assessment of online public opinion in emergency situations.First,a temporal semantic co-occurrence network was constructed by integrating the RoBERTa model,and network community topics were discovered using the Louvain-CFDP algorithm.Second,a model for detecting topic transitions was developed to generate topic transition paths and identify and analyze multiple types of transition paths and risk fluctuation characteristics.Taking the“Japanese nuclear contaminated water discharge into the sea”incident as an example,the empirical analysis identified three types of transition paths:event development,emotional aggregation,and derivative event types.The characteristics,risk features,and differences between the three types of paths were analyzed.The results show that the proposed method for topic transition paths and risk assessment can comprehensively demonstrate the topic transition of emergencies on social media,provide guidance and references for government departments to quickly identify high-risk topics,and formulate precise and effective public opinion risk guidance schemes.

关 键 词：主题转变检测模型 主题转变路径 舆情风险 突发事件 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学] O157.5[理学—数学]