基于改进半不变量法的概率潮流特性分析  

Probabilistic Power Flow Characteristics Analysis Based on Improved Semi-invariant Method

作　　者：史可鉴 代子阔 徐妍 张东升 许向伟 闫士杰 SHI Kejian;DAI Zikuo;XU Yan;ZHANG Dongsheng;XU Xiangwei;YAN Shijie(Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,LTD.,Shenyang 110055,China;State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,LTD.,Shenyang 110006,China;State Grid Tieling Power Supply Company,Tieling 112300,China;State Grid Anshan Power Supply Company,Anshan 114001,China;State Grid Chaoyang Power Supply Company,Chaoyang 122000,China;College of Information Science and Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]国网辽宁省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,辽宁沈阳110055 [2]国网辽宁省电力有限公司,辽宁沈阳110006 [3]国网铁岭供电公司,辽宁铁岭112300 [4]国网鞍山供电公司,辽宁鞍山114001 [5]国网朝阳供电公司,辽宁朝阳122000 [6]东北大学信息科学与工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《控制工程》2024年第11期1937-1946,共10页Control Engineering of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(62173082);新能源电力系统国家重点实验室开放课题项目(LAPS21007)。

摘　　要：针对风光发电等分布式电源具有随机性、间歇性和相关性的问题,提出了一种改进半不变量法概率潮流计算方法,来处理风光场之间复杂的尾部相关性,并提高计算效率。首先,建立了随机变量的概率模型、风光出力模型以及风光联合分布模型;其次,考虑风光场之间的出力相关性,提出了一种基于Rosenblatt变换的改进半不变量法概率潮流计算方法,大大提高了潮流计算效率;最后,对接入风电场和光伏场的等效的IEEE34节点系统进行了仿真测试,并与基于场景削减的蒙特卡罗法概率潮流计算方法进行了对比,验证了所提方法在配电网潮流特性分析中的有效性和准确性。For the problems of randomness,intermittence and correlation of distributed power sources such as wind and solar power generation,an improved semi-invariant probabilistic power flow calculation method is proposed to deal with the complex tail correlation between wind and solar fields and improve the calculation efficiency.Firstly,the probability model of random variables,the wind-solar output model and the joint distribution model of wind-solar are established.Secondly,considering the output correlation between wind and solar fields,an improved semi-invariant probabilistic power flow calculation method based on Rosenblatt transform is proposed,which greatly improves the efficiency of power flow calculation.Finally,the equivalent IEEE34 node system connected to the wind farm and photovoltaic field is simulated and tested,and compared with the Monte Carlo probabilistic power flow calculation method based on scenario reduction,which verifies the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method in the analysis of power flow characteristics of distribution network.

关 键 词：概率潮流计算 风光相关性 蒙特卡罗法 半不变量法 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]