最低收购价政策可以提高农民种粮积极性吗?——基于双重差分模型的实证检验  

Can Minimum Purchase Price Policy Improve Farmers’Enthusiasm to Grow Grain:Empirical Test Based on Difference-in-differences Model

作　　者：孙甜甜 SUN Tiantian(School of Economics,Hebei Geological University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学经济学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《宜宾学院学报》2024年第11期44-53,共10页Journal of Yibin University

基　　金：河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SQ2022119);河北地质大学科技创新团队项目(KJCXTD-2022-02);河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20230202014)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2020年省级面板数据,利用双重差分法分别考察最低收购价政策对小麦和稻谷的播种面积、产量与价格波动的影响。结果表明:最低收购价政策的实施有助于提升农民种粮的积极性,从而增大粮食播种面积,增加粮食产量;而最低收购政策对粮食价格波动的影响很小,且回归系数不显著,这可能与政策实施力度、粮食的品种特性等因素有关。此外,在经过随机性检验、平行趋势检验以及安慰剂检验后,这一结论仍然成立,确保了估计结果的可信性和稳定性。Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2020,the effects of minimum purchase price policy on sowing area,yield and price fluctuation of wheat and rice are investigated by using the method of differential analysis.The results show that the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy can promote the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain,so as to increase the grain sown area and grain output.The minimum purchase policy has little effect on grain price fluctuation,and the regression coefficient is not significant,which may be related to the policy implementation intensity,grain variety characteristics and other factors.In addition,this conclusion remains valid after randomness test,parallel trend test and placebo test,which ensures the reliability and stability of the estimated results.

关 键 词：最低收购价政策 双重差分法 粮食播种面积 粮食产量 价格波动 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]