极端高温天气与宜昌市居民非意外死亡关系时间分层病例交叉分析  

Association of extreme high temperature weather with non-accidental deaths among residents of Yichang city:a time-stratified case-crossover analysis

作　　者：明小燕[1] 韩阳 杨忠诚[1] 王早霞[1] 谢曙光[3] 范传刚[3] MING Xiaoyan;HAN Yang;YANG Zhongcheng;WANG Zaoxia;XIE Shuguang;FAN Chuangang(Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yichang 443005,China;Chibi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chibi 437399,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]宜昌市疾病预防控制中心,宜昌443005 [2]赤壁市疾病预防控制中心,赤壁437399 [3]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,武汉430079

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2024年第10期1169-1175,共7页Chinese Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的分析极端高温天气与湖北省宜昌市居民非意外死亡的关系,为降低居民非意外死亡的风险提供参考依据。方法收集宜昌市疾病预防控制中心死因系统记录的宜昌市城区2014年1月1日—2022年12月31日46170例非意外死亡者的相关数据以及同期宜昌市城区5个国控环境空气质量自动监测站每日的污染物监测数据和城区气象数据,采用时间分层病例交叉设计通过条件logistic回归模型分析温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(92.5)且持续1 d(P_(92.5)–1 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(92.5)且持续2 d(P_(92.5)–2 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(92.5)且持续3 d(P_(92.5)–3 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(95.0)且持续1 d(P_(95.0)–1 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(95.0)且持续2 d(P_(95.0)–2 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(95.0)且持续3 d(P_(95.0)–3 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(97.5)且持续1 d(P_(97.5)–1 d)、温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(97.5)且持续2 d(P_(97.5)–2 d)和温度不低于研究期间平均温度的P_(97.5)且持续3 d(P_(97.5)–3 d)共9种极端高温事件对宜昌市居民非意外死亡风险的影响。结果湖北省宜昌市46170例非意外死亡者的病例天数为46170 d,匹配的对照天数为157134 d;宜昌市46170例非意外死亡者中,P_(92.5)–1 d死亡3371例(7.30%),P_(92.5)–2 d死亡3041例(6.59%),P_(92.5)–3 d死亡2597例(5.62%),P_(95.0)–1 d死亡2436例(5.28%),P_(95.0)–2 d死亡2205例(4.78%),P_(95.0)–3 d死亡1960例(4.25%),P_(97.5)–1 d死亡1343例(2.91%),P_(97.5)–2 d死亡1148例(2.49%),P_(97.5)–3 d死亡882例(1.91%);在排除了湿度(RH)、细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO_(2))、二氧化氮(NO_(2))、臭氧(O3)、一氧化碳(CO)以及死亡者性别、年龄等因素的影响后,时间分层病例交叉分析结果显示,P_(92.5)–1 d、P_(92.5)–2 d、P_(92.5)Objective To analyze the correlation between extreme high temperature weather and non-accidental deaths among residents in Yichang city,Hubei province,and to provide a reference for reducing the risk of non-accidental deaths.Methods Data on 46170 non-accidental deaths in urban areas of Yichang from 2014 to 2022 were collected from the death registration system of the Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Daily air pollution monitoring data from five national automatic air quality monitoring stations,as well as urban meteorological data during the same period,were also collected.A time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logistic regression model was used to analyze the effects of nine extreme high temperature events on the risk of non-accidental death among Yichang residents.These events included daily mean ambient air temperatures not lower than the 92.5th/95.0th/97.5th percentile during the study period and lasting 1,2,or 3 days,abbreviated as P_(92.5)/95.0/97.5-1/2/3 d.Results The analysis included 46170 case days and 157134 matched control days.Of the 46170 non-accidental deaths registered during the period,3371(7.30%)occurred during the P_(92.5)-1 d event,followed by 3041(6.59%)during P_(92.5)-2 d,2597(5.62%)during P_(92.5)-3 d,2436(5.28%)during P_(95.0)-1 d,2205(4.78%)during P_(95.0)-2 d,1960(4.25%)during P_(95.0)-3 d,1343(2.91%)during P_(97.5)-1 d,1148(2.49%)during P_(97.5)-2 d,and 882(1.91%)during P_(97.5)-3 d,respectively.After controlling for relative humidity(RH),fine particulate matter≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter(PM_(2.5)),inhalable particulate matter≤10μm in aerodynamic diameter(PM10),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O3),carbon monoxide(CO),and the gender and age of the deceased,the time-stratified case-crossover analysis showed that all nine extreme high temperature events were positively correlated with increased risk of non-accidental deaths among Yichang residents,with a lag effect Except for the P_(92.5)-2 d and P_(92.5)-3 d events,which l

关 键 词：非意外死亡 极端高温 关系 时间分层病例交叉分析 宜昌市 

分 类 号：R122.26[医药卫生—环境卫生学]