2005-2021年中国人群意外伤害死亡特点及趋势分析  

Analysis on characteristics and prediction of death among Chinese population with accidental injury from 2005 to 2021

作　　者：罗小闯 张继娜 李建丰 李冰雪 马媛媛 Luo Xiaochuang;Zhang Jina;Li Jianfeng;Li Bingxue;Ma Yuanyuan(Nursing College of Henan Medical College,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南医学高等专科学校护理学院,郑州450003

出　　处：《中华创伤杂志》2024年第10期923-928,共6页Chinese Journal of Trauma

摘　　要：目的分析2005—2021年中国人群意外伤害死亡特点并预测2022—2031年意外伤害死亡趋势。方法基于《中国死因监测数据集》收集2005—2021年中国人群意外伤害死亡数据,计算期间中国人群意外伤害总体死亡情况,如粗死亡率、标化死亡率。通过标化死亡率拟合Joinpoint回归模型分析2005—2021年中国人群意外伤害不同性别、城乡、年龄段,以及东部、中部和西部地区死亡趋势变化的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度百分比(AAPC)。采用指数平滑法对2022—2031年中国人群意外伤害标化死亡率进行预测。结果2005—2021年中国人群意外伤害粗死亡率从2005年的45.96/10万降至2021年的39.97/10万,标化死亡率从2005年的50.20/10万降至2021年的30.74/10万,呈单调下降趋势(APC=AAPC=-2.63,P<0.01)。2005—2021年男性意外伤害标化死亡率高于女性,男性和女性意外伤害标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(AAPC_(男性)=-2.85,AAPC_(女性)=-2.17,P<0.01)。2005—2021年农村人群意外伤害标化死亡率高于城市,且城市和农村人群意外伤害标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(AAPC_(城市)=-2.39,P<0.01;AAPC_(农村)=-2.58,P<0.05)。2005—2021年中国人群意外伤害标化死亡率主要集中在15~44岁年龄段。2005—2021年西部地区人群意外伤害标化死亡率高于东部和中部地区,且西部和中部地区意外伤害标化死亡率在2011年出现下降拐点。预测结果显示,2022—2031年中国人群意外伤害标化死亡率从30.26/10万降至20.93/10万。结论中国人群2005—2021年意外伤害标化死亡率总体呈下降趋势,且男性、农村、中青年、西部地区人群仍是预防意外伤害发生的重点人群。同时,2022—2031年意外伤害标化死亡率将呈下降趋势。Objective To analyze the characteristics of accidental injury death among Chinese population from 2005 to 2021 and predict its trends from 2022 to 2031.Methods Based on the China Death Surveillance Database,the accidental injury death data of Chinese population from 2005 to 2021 were collected.The overall accidental injury death of Chinese population during the period was calculated,such as crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate.A Joinpoint regression model was applied to calculate the standardized mortality rate including the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of accidental injury death among Chinese population of different genders,in urban and rural areas,age groups and eastern,central and western regions from 2005 to 2021.The standardized mortality rate of accidental injuries among Chinese population from 2022 to 2031 was predicted by using the exponential smoothing method.Results From 2005 to 2021,the crude mortality rate of accidental injury among Chinese population decreased from 45.96/100000 in 2005 to 39.97/100000 in 2021,with the standardized mortality rate decreasing from 50.20/100000 in 2005 to 30.74/100000 in 2021,which showed a monotonous downward trend(APC=AAPC=-2.63,P<0.01).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in males was higher than that in females,showing a downward trend in both males and females(AAPC_(male)=-2.85,AAPC_(female)=-2.17,P<0.01).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in rural population was higher than that in urban population,showing a downward trend in both urban and rural population(AAPC_(city)=-2.39,P<0.01;AAPC_(rural)=-2.58,P<0.05).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in Chinese population mainly fell in the age group of 15-44 years.From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in the western region was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and there was an inflection point from up to down i

关 键 词：创伤和损伤 死亡 预测 意外伤害 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]