Deterministic modelling of asymptomatic spread and disease stage progression in vaccine preventable infectious diseases  

作　　者：Gabor Kiss Salissou Moutari Cara Mctaggart Lynsey Patterson Frank Kee Felicity Lamrock 

机构地区：[1]Mathematical Sciences Research Centre,School of Mathematics&Physics,Queen’s University Belfast,Belfast,UK [2]Public Health Agency,Belfast,UK [3]Centre for Public Health,Queen’s University Belfast,Belfast,UK

出　　处：《Quantitative Biology》2024年第4期400-413,共14页定量生物学（英文版）

摘　　要：This study introduces a deterministic formulation for modelling the asymptotic spread of a vaccine preventable disease as well as the different stages for the progression of the disease.We derive the formula for the associated basic reproduction number.To illustrate the proposed model,we use data from the 2017-2018 diphtheria outbreak in Yemen and fit the parameters of the model.A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number,with respect to the model parameters,show that this number increases with an increase of the transmission rate while this number decreases when vaccination rate increases.

关 键 词：number ASYMPTOTIC formulation 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]