乌克兰危机背景下日本政治信念的变化与安全战略调整  

Japanese Political Beliefs in the Context of Ukraine Crisis Changes and Security Strategy Adjustments

作　　者：陆伟[1] Lu Wei

机构地区：[1]同济大学政治与国际关系学院,上海200092

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2024年第6期56-74,I0003,共20页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“冷战后日本战略文化的转型与我国的对策研究”(编号:18BGJ049)。

摘　　要：日本对外政策制定立足于国家战略利益目标确定、国际环境判定以及对对手威胁界定的基础之上。决策的判断依据与政策手段的选取,受到政策精英政治信念的影响。以乌克兰危机为契机,日本政策精英的政治信念呈现出新的变化特征。对日本政府关于安保政策的官方文件的操作码指标进行测算,证实了日本政策精英的政治信念在岸田时期已进一步显示出消极和悲观的强现实主义色彩。哲学信念重新界定了日本的国家利益和战略目标、塑造了日本的风险偏好,工具信念则改变了日本政策手段的选择,使得激进性、冒险性和进攻性共同构成了日本安全战略大转向的显著标志。The policy-making elites usually make Japan's foreign policy based on some main factors:national strategical goal confirmation,international environment cognition,and identification of hostile threats.The political ideas of the policy-making elites are deeply rooted in the three factors mentioned above.Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,political ideas have changde,which is reflected in the operational code of the policy-making elites.According to the operational code analysis of the political ideas,it is easy to find that the political ideas of the Kishida period are quite different from those of the Abe era.The political ideas of the policy-making elites in the Kishida period can be characterized as“negative and pessimistic”strong realism.Therefore,Japan's national interests,strategic goals,and threat assessment are shaped by the philosophical ideas of the policy-making elites,and the instrumental ideas of the policy-making elites influence Japan's choice of policy approach.For this reason Japan's national security strategy is becoming increasingly radical,adventurous,and aggressive.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 安全战略 日本政策精英 政治信念 操作码分析 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]