基于决策树模型的煤矿开采矿震预测研究  

Mine Earthquake Prediction in Coal Mining Based on Decision Tree Model

作　　者：王英杰 WANG Yingjie(Xinzhou Shenda Energy Group Co.,Ltd.of Shanxi,Xinzhou 034000,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西忻州神达能源集团有限公司,山西忻州034000

出　　处：《能源与节能》2024年第11期30-32,共3页Energy and Energy Conservation

摘　　要：煤矿开采能够保障社会的正常运转,具有十分重要的作用。然而,煤矿开采会引起矿区微震,影响矿区的安全。为了对煤矿开采时的矿震进行预测,保障矿区的安全,研究采用了有限元分析方法,构建了晋保煤矿工作面的数值模型。基于该数值模型,研究明确了开采速度和地表沉降在矿震中的影响,并以此为依据收集了矿震预测模型的训练及测试数据。研究采用决策树来构建矿震预测模型。结果显示,开采速度的最大值、最小值分别为13.2、 0.3 m/d,矿震能量的最大值、最小值分别为8.77×10^(5)J和0 J。当煤矿开采速度提升时,矿震能量也在同步增长。基于决策树模型的矿震预测准确率最大值、最小值分别为96.88%、 93.47%。该矿震预测模型具有良好的性能,能为矿震的识别提供技术上的支持。Coal mining plays a very important role in ensuring the normal operation of society.However,coal mining can also cause microseisms in mining areas,affecting their safety.In order to predict the mine earthquake during coal mining and ensure the safety of the mining area,the finite element analysis method was used to construct a numerical model for the working face of Jinbao Coal Mine.Based on this numerical model,the influence of mining speed and surface subsidence on the epicenter of mining earthquakes was studied and clarified,and training and testing data of mining earthquake prediction models were collected based on this.Decision trees were used to construct a mining earthquake prediction model.The results showed that the maximum and minimum values of mining speed were 13.2 m/d and 0.3 m/d,respectively,and the maximum and minimum values of mining seismic energy were 8.77×10^(5) J and 0 J,respectively.As the mining speed of coal mines increased,the seismic energy of coal mines also increased synchronously.The maximum and minimum accuracy of mining earthquake prediction in the decision tree model were 96.88%and 93.47%,respectively.The mining earthquake prediction model has good performance and can provide technical support for the identification of mining earthquake.

关 键 词：煤矿 矿震预测 决策树模型 数值模型 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设]