中国煤炭消费对碳排放的影响研究——基于ECM模型的分析  

Impact of Coal Consumption on Carbon Emissions in China:Analysis Based on ECM Model

作　　者：孔庆宝 郭欣维 彭艺萱 胡菁 陈豪 KONG Qingbao;GUO Xinwei;PENG Yixuan;HU Jing;CHEN Hao(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海200000

出　　处：《能源与节能》2024年第11期60-63,共4页Energy and Energy Conservation

基　　金：上海电力大学科研基金项目(K2015-028)。

摘　　要：中国是全球最大的煤炭生产国和消费国,控制煤炭消费对中国实现“双碳”目标至关重要。与此同时,中国也是世界主要的石油和天然气消费国,2023年中国碳排放量占全球碳排放总量的30.93%。采用单位根检验、协整检验、ECM(Error Correction Model,误差修正模型)检验和Granger因果关系检验,实证分析了中国煤炭消费量与碳排放量之间的短期动态和长期均衡关系。研究结果表明,中国煤炭消费量和碳排放量之间存在双向Granger因果关系,即煤炭消费量的变化会引起碳排放量的变化,同时碳排放量的变化会反向影响煤炭消费量。协整分析进一步揭示了两者之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系。基于ECM进行分析,还发现短期内煤炭消费量的变化会对碳排放量产生显著影响。China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal,controlling coal consumption is crucial for China to achieve its"dual carbon"goals.At the same time,China is also a major consumer of oil and natural gas in the world,accounting for 30.93%of global carbon emissions in 2023.Unit root test,cointegration test,ECM(Error Correction Model)test,and Granger causality relationship test were used to empirically analyze the short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationship between China's coal consumption and carbon emissions.The research results indicate that there is a bidirectional Granger causality relationship between China's coal consumption and carbon emissions,that is,changes in coal consumption will cause changes in carbon emissions,while changes in carbon emissions will have a reverse impact on coal consumption.Cointegration analysis further revealed the existence of a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.Based on ECM analysis,it was also found that changes in coal consumption in the short term have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

关 键 词：煤炭消费 碳排放 VAR模型 GRANGER因果关系 ECM 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]