基于Biomod2平台组合模型的蒙古黄芪生产区划研究  

Production Suitable Area Planning of Astragalus membranaceus var.mongholicus Based on Biomod2 Platform Combined Model

作　　者：孟乡 李耿 刘斌 史楠楠[1] MENG Xiang;LI Geng;LIU Bin;SHI Nan-nan(Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100700,China;Chinese Medicine Regulatory Scientific Research Center,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100700,China)

机构地区：[1]中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所,北京100700 [2]中国中医科学院中药监管科学研究中心,北京100700

出　　处：《中国现代中药》2024年第11期1843-1847,I0001-I0008,共13页Modern Chinese Medicine

基　　金：中国中医科学院“中医临床基础学科”创新团队——品牌塑造项目(CI2021B003-01)。

摘　　要：目的:分析蒙古黄芪生境适宜性,结合土地利用类型数据,确定其生产适宜区。方法:基于蒙古黄芪的分布数据和包含气候因子、土壤因子等的环境变量数据,采用Biomod2平台组合模型,筛选蒙古黄芪的主要生态因子,构建其生产适宜性综合评价模型。结果:模型评价结果表明,我国东北、华北及西北的大部分地区适宜种植蒙古黄芪,高适宜种植区主要分布在内蒙古中东部、吉林东北部、黑龙江东部、河北北部、甘肃东南部和山西、陕西部分地区。结论:组合模型与单一模型各有优缺点,虽然单一模型中的推进式回归树模型和随机森林模型在精度和面积分布方面均表现较好,但组合模型整体表现优于任意单一模型。因此,组合模型对蒙古黄芪的生产适宜性评价更为精确,可为其生产区划研究提供更好的评价方法。Objective:To analyze the habitat suitability of Astragalus membranaceus var.mongholicus,and identify suitable areas for the production of A.membranaceus var.mongholicus combined with land use data.Methods:Based on the distribution data of A.membranaceus var.mongholicus and environmental variables,including climate and soil factors,the Biomod2 platform was used to construct a combined model.The established model was employed to screen the main ecological factors influencing A.membranaceus var.mongholicus and to build a comprehensive evaluation model of its production suitability.Results:The model evaluation results indicate that most areas in northeastern,northern,and northwestern China are suitable for cultivating A.membranaceus var.mongholicus.The highly suitable cultivation areas are primarily distributed in central-eastern Inner Mongolia,northeastern Jilin,eastern Heilongjiang,northern Hebei,southeastern Gansu,and parts of Shanxi and Shaanxi.Conclusion:The combined model and single models each have their advantages and disadvantages.Although the gradient boosting machine and random forest single models perform well in terms of accuracy and area distribution,the overall performance of the combined model is superior to any single model.Therefore,the combined model provides a more accurate evaluation of the suitability for A.membranaceus var.mongholicus production and can offer better methods for planning its cultivation.

关 键 词：Biomod2平台 组合模型 蒙古黄芪 生产区划 

分 类 号：R282[医药卫生—中药学]