农民工托育选择:演化博弈下的两方主体互动分析  

Childcare Choices of Migrant Workers: An Analysis of Two-party Interaction Through Evolutionary Game

作　　者：李瑞洋 刘晓梅[1] LI Ruiyang;LIU Xiaomei

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期187-200,共14页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅重点项目“辽宁省农村养老保障资源整合与质量提升”(LJ112410173079);辽宁省社会科学基金项目“基于两批政策试点的我国长期护理保险基金可持续性研究”(L23BGL030)。

摘　　要：随着经济的发展和农民外出务工比例的增加,农民工子女托育难问题成为社会关注的焦点。结合前景理论和演化博弈理论,深入分析农民工托育选择与民办托育机构策略的复杂互动关系。研究揭示,政府补贴、托育费用以及转型成本等关键因素对双方策略选择和演化趋势有显著影响。农民工在托育选择中不仅受到经济压力的影响,还受到心理账户和损失规避等心理因素的影响。当托育费用过高时,农民工倾向于拒绝托育服务。此外,对托育质量的怀疑也可能降低他们选择普惠性托育服务的意愿。民办托育机构在转型过程中面临平衡服务质量、成本控制与盈利目标的挑战。通过北京市案例的模拟分析,研究发现提高政府补贴、降低托育费用和减少转型成本有助于促进农民工接受托育服务和民办机构向普惠性转型。因此,建议政府通过多种经济杠杆和管理手段支持民办托育机构,提高托育服务质量和覆盖率,以优化托育体系,促进社会公平与和谐发展。With economic development and the increasing proportion of migrant workers,the challenges of childcare for their children has become a significant societal concern.This paper employs both prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to analyze the complex interaction between the childcare choices of migrant workers and the strategies of private childcare institutions.The findings indicate that key factors such as government subsidies,childcare costs,and transition expenses significantly influence the strategic choices and evolutionary trends of both parties.Migrant workers’childcare choices are not only affected by economic pressures but also by psychological factors such as mental accounting and loss aversion.When childcare costs are prohibitively high,migrant workers tend to forgo childcare services altogether,and skepticism regarding the quality of care further deters them from opting for inclusive childcare services.Meanwhile,private childcare institutions face challenges in balancing service quality,cost control,and profitability during their transition.Through simulation analysis based on a case study of Beijing,the research demonstrates that increasing government subsidies,reducing childcare costs,and decreasing transition costs can encourage migrant workers to embrace childcare services and motivate private institutions to adopt inclusive models.Therefore,this paper recommends that the government support private childcare institutions through various economic incentives and management strategies,improve the quality and accessibility of childcare services,and optimize the childcare system to promote social equity and harmonious development.

关 键 词：农民工 普惠性托育 演化博弈 前景理论 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学]