新疆阿克苏地区棉花苗期低温灾害风险评估及区划研究  

Risk assessment and regionalization of low temperature disaster at cotton seedling stage in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang

作　　者：唐雪莲 火勋国 王雪姣 王森 张立祯[1] 张钰曈 郭燕云 张山清 孙帅 李顺澳 帕尔哈提·买买提[5] Tang Xuelian;Huo Xunguo;Wang Xuejiao;Wang Sen;Zhang Lizhen;Zhang Yutong;Guo Yanyun;Zhang Shanqing;Sun Shuai;Li Shun’ao;Paerhati Maimaiti(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Information Center of Xinjiang Xingnong Net/Xinjiang Agrometeorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China;Wulanwusu Ecology and Agrometeorology Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Institute of Industrial Crops,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Research Center of National Cotton Engineering and Technology,Urumqi 830091,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]乌兰乌苏生态与农业气象新疆野外科学观测研究站,新疆石河子832000 [4]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002 [5]新疆农业科学院经济作物研究所/国家棉花工程技术研究中心,乌鲁木齐830091

出　　处：《棉花学报》2024年第5期396-407,共12页Cotton Science

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划课题“新疆粮棉气象灾害发生规律研究及防控智慧化平台建设”(2022B02001-1);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才”培养计划“三农”骨干人才培养项目“棉花苗期气象灾害预警及灾后管理数字化技术研发与应用”(2023SNGGGCC023);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才”培养计划“棉花轻简高效栽培技术创新团队”(2023TSYCTD004)。

摘　　要：【目的】低温灾害是新疆阿克苏地区棉花苗期的主要农业气象灾害之一,严重限制棉花生产的稳定性和安全性。明确阿克苏地区棉花苗期低温灾害的风险区域,可以有效提升该地区应对低温灾害的防御能力。【方法】基于阿克苏地区1961―2020年的气象资料,利用气候倾向率分析了阿克苏地区棉花苗期日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温和2种低温灾害(寒潮、晚霜冻)发生频次的变化趋势,并分析了4-5月寒潮和晚霜冻发生的时间分布特征。通过分析低温致灾因子的危险性指数,结合承灾体暴露度指数和防灾减灾能力,构建低温灾害的综合风险评估模型,并进行棉花苗期低温灾害的风险区划。【结果】1961―2020年阿克苏地区棉花苗期日最低气温、日最高气温和日平均气温均呈显著升高趋势,寒潮和晚霜冻发生频次呈减少趋势,寒潮在4月10日之后和晚霜冻在4月12日之后的发生率均低于20%。阿克苏地区春季低温致灾因子的危险性等级呈现出“北高南低、西高东低”的空间分布特征。综合风险区划结果表明,阿克苏地区中部和中东部的阿拉尔市、阿克苏市中部、阿瓦提县东北部、柯坪县东部边缘、新和县东部、库车市西南部与中部、沙雅县北部和温宿县东南部是低温灾害的高等级、较高等级风险区。【结论】尽管阿克苏地区春季气温升高,寒潮和晚霜冻的发生频次减少,但阿克苏地区的中部和中东部植棉区仍面临较高的低温灾害风险,需采取针对性措施以减轻低温灾害对棉花生产的影响。[Objective]Low temperature is one of the main agrometeorological disasters during the cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang,which seriously limits the stability and safety of cotton production.Clarifying the risk areas of cotton low temperature disaster during cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture can effectively improve the defense ability of this region to cope with low temperature.[Methods]Based on the meteorological data of Aksu Prefecture from 1961 to 2020,the changing trends of daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature,and the changing frequency of low temperature disasters(cold wave and late frost injury)during the seedling period of cotton were analyzed by using the climatic tendency rate.The time distribution characteristics of cold wave and late frost injury in April to May were also analyzed.A comprehensive risk assessment model for low temperature disaster was established,and the risk regionalization of low temperature disaster during cotton seedling stage was carried out by analyzing the hazard index of low temperature disaster-inducing factors,and combining the exposure index of the hazard-bearing body,and local the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.[Results]From 1961 to 2020,the daily minimum temperature,daily maximum temperature,and daily average temperature during the cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture showed a significant increasing trend,and the frequency of cold wave and late frost injury showed a decreasing trend.The incidence of cold wave and late frost injury in Aksu Prefecture is below 20%after 10 April and 12 April,respectively.The risk level of spring low temperature disaster-causing factors in Aksu Prefecture showed the spatial distribution characteristics of“high in the north and low in the south,high in the west and low in the east”.The results of comprehensive risk regionalization indicated that the central and east-central areas of Aksu Prefecture,which including Aral City,the central part of Aksu City,the

关 键 词：棉花 寒潮 晚霜冻 风险评估 区划 苗期 阿克苏地区 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学] S426