中国棉花产业链韧性评估及影响因素分析  

Resilience assessment and influencing factor analysis of cotton industrial chain in China

作　　者：张娇 苏洋 刘维忠[1,2] 阿依娜西·加吾达提 徐丽娜 秦思雪 Zhang Jiao;Su Yang;Liu Weizhong;Ayinaxi Jiawudati;Xu Lina;Qin Sixue(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Agricultural and Rural Development Research Center of Key Humanities and Social Sciences Bases of Universities in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区高校重点人文社科基地农业与农村发展研究中心,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《棉花学报》2024年第5期408-419,共12页Cotton Science

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费项目:数字经济视域下新疆棉花产业链韧性评估与提升路径研究(2224GXKYJH)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析中国棉花产业链韧性水平及影响因素,为棉花产业发展提供参考。【方法】基于韧性理论,从抵御能力、更新能力、恢复能力和政府力量4个维度构建棉花产业链韧性评价指标体系,采用基于熵权法-虚拟最优解逼近理想解排序法和灰色关联度的动态评价模型测度2007―2022年中国棉花产业链韧性水平。采用地理信息系统空间分析技术探讨中国棉花产业链韧性水平的空间演变特征。采用Tobit回归模型探究棉花产业链韧性的影响因素。【结果】2007―2022年中国棉花产业链韧性水平整体呈先升高后降低趋势;2007―2016年为平稳增长期;2017―2021年为加速提升期;2022年韧性水平有所降低,为挑战恢复期。2007―2022年,棉花产业链韧性高值区和较高值区增多,较低值区减少;新疆、甘肃、山东、湖北的棉花产业链韧性水平呈上升态势。对外开放水平和政府财政支持水平对棉花产业链韧性水平有显著正向影响;科技创新水平和交通基础设施水平对棉花产业链韧性有正向影响;棉花价格对棉花产业链韧性具有负向影响。【结论】中国棉花产业链韧性水平总体呈波动上升态势且空间格局变化较大。要继续实施棉花目标价格政策,加大科技创新力度,促进基础设施建设,以不断提升中国棉花产业链韧性。[Objective]This research aims to analyze the resilience level and its influencing factors of China's cotton industrial chain,and to provide reference for the development of cotton industry.[Methods]Based on the resilience theory,a evaluation index system for resilience of cotton industrial chain was constructed from four dimensions of resistance capability,recovery capability,update capability,and government power.And a dynamic evaluation model based on entropy weight-virtual optimal solution technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)and grey relational analysis was used to measure the resilience level of cotton industrial chain in China from 2007 to 2022.The spatial evolution characteristics of resilience level of cotton industrial chain in China were studied by using the geographic information system(GIS)spatial analysis techniques.Tobit regression model was used to explore the influencing factors of cotton industrial chain resilience.[Results]From 2007 to 2022,the resilience level of China's cotton industrial chain showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.In 2007-2016,it was a stable growth period;2017-2021 was an accelerated growth period;and in 2022,the resilience level decreased,which is a challenging recovery period.From 2007 to 2022,the number of high and higher resilience value area of cotton industrial chain increased,while the number of lower value area decreased.The resilience levels of cotton industrial chain in Xinjiang,Gansu,Shandong,and Hubei were increasing.The levels of opening to the outside world as well as government support showed significant positive impact on the resilience of cotton industrial chain.The impact of scientific and technological innovation level and transportation infrastructure level on the resilience of cotton industrial chain were positive;while the impact of cotton price level was negative.[Conclusion]The resilience level of China's cotton industrial chain is on the rise in general,and the spatial pattern has changed greatly.It

关 键 词：产业链 韧性 棉花 测度 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]