基于有限元分析的特高拱坝实时风险率模型  

Real-time risk rate model for extra-high arch dams based on finite element analysis

作　　者：何梦佳 陈波[1,2,3] 刘庭赫 詹明强 吴诚姝 HE Mengjia;CHEN Bo;LIU Tinghe;ZHAN Mingqiang;WU Chengshu(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Water Northeastern Investigation Design and Research Corporation Limited,Changchun 130021,China;Fujian Shuikou Power Generation Group Corporation Limited,Fuzhou 350001,China;POWERCHINA Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210098 [4]中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司,吉林长春130021 [5]福建水口发电集团有限公司,福建福州350001 [6]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2024年第6期113-122,共10页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079049);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239009);全国重点实验室基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(522012272,5230248A2)。

摘　　要：针对目前特高拱坝实时风险率模型存在过于依赖监测统计、难以联系结构物理特征和临界状态、实测资料与临界状态间映射关系模糊等问题,提出了一种基于有限元正反分析的特高拱坝实时风险率模型。该模型基于麻雀搜索算法(SSA)和多输出支持向量回归(MSVR)反演确定坝体与地基综合物理力学参数,通过塑性应变能判据计算极限状态下的大坝服役超载安全系数,确定临界变形值,并根据工程可靠度理论及拱坝安全规范,得出实时风险率。西南地区某特高拱坝的实例验证结果表明:该模型可有效联结特高拱坝变形监测资料与工程临界状态间的关系,提升坝体弹性模量与坝基变形模量的反演效率,实现特高拱坝的结构安全监控预警,可用于特高拱坝长期工作性态评估和风险率实时管控。Aiming at the problems of the current real-time risk rate models for extra-high arch dams,such as over-reliance on monitoring statistics,difficulty in linking the physical characteristics of the structure and the critical state,and ambiguous mapping relationship between the measured data and the critical state,a real-time risk rate model for extra-high arch dams based on the finite element forward and inverse analysis is proposed.This model uses the sparrow search algorithm(SSA)and multi-output support vector regression(MSVR)inversion to determine the integrated physical and mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation.Using the plastic strain energy criterion,it calculates the safety factor against overload of the dam in service under the limit state,identifies the critical deformation values,and derives the real-time risk rate based on the theory of engineering reliability and the safety specification of arch dams.The results of a case study of an extra-high arch dam in Southwest China show that the model can effectively link the relationship between the deformation monitoring data of the extra-high arch dam and the critical state of the project,improve the inversion efficiency of the elastic modulus of the dam body and the deformation modulus of the dam foundation,and realize the structural safety monitoring and early warning of extra-high arch dams.It can be used for long-term performance assessment and real-time risk rate control of extra-high arch dams.

关 键 词：特高拱坝 有限元正反分析 实时风险率 工程可靠度 监测预警 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]