新世纪以来外资流入对我国产业结构升级的影响  

The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Upgrading of China’s Industrial Structure since the New Century

作　　者：王晓琴 项鸿静 米红[3] WANG Xiaoqin;XIANG Hongjing;MI Hong(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310000,China;Graduate School,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310000,China;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州310000 [2]中国计量大学研究生院,浙江杭州310000 [3]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第11期77-88,共12页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系研究”(21ZDA101);浙江省哲学社会科学优势重大项目“从‘未富先老’到‘渐富快老’:中国人口老龄化多状态预测与养老政策仿真研究(2018—2070)”(19YSXK03ZD)。

摘　　要：基于1999年至2020年的中国省级面板数据,旨在探究老龄化趋势下外资流入对我国产业结构转型与升级的影响及其潜在作用机制。通过基准回归模型研究发现,外资流入对推动我国产业结构朝向高级化方向发展具有明显的积极作用,然而它同时在一定程度上限制了产业结构合理化水平的提高。研究指出,外资主要通过影响区域创新能力和提高全要素生产率,进而作用于我国产业结构的演进。因此,在吸引外资的过程中,必须审慎考虑外资规模的重要性,避免盲目追求外资量的增加,而应重视其对区域创新能力和全要素生产率提升的贡献。Based on the provincial panel data in China(1999-2020),this paper aims to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment(FDI)inflow on the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure under the backdrop of aging population,as well as the acting mechanisms behind this impact.The research of benchmark regression model finds that FDI inflow has played a significant positive role in promoting the development of China’s industrial structure towards higher levels of sophistication.However,it has also,to some extent,suppressed the improvement of the rationalization level of the industrial structure.The research points out that FDI affects the devel⁃opment of China’s industrial structure mainly through its impact on regional innovation capabilities and improve⁃ment of total factor productivity(TFP).Therefore,the research results emphasize the need for a prudent consider⁃ation of the importance of FDI scale when attracting foreign investment to avoid blind pursuit of expansion of the scale of FDI inflow,but rather pay more attention to its contribution to promoting regional innovation capabilities and TFP.

关 键 词：产业结构升级 基准模型 中介效应 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]