基于系统动力学的阶段性弹药消耗预计方法  

Prediction Method of Phased Ammunition Consumption Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：姜永超 史宪铭 周大星 JIANG Yongchao;SHI Xianming;ZHOU Daxing(Shijiazhuang Campus of Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China;Unit 92207 of PLA,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,石家庄050003 [2]解放军92207部队,石家庄050003

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2024年第10期34-40,48,共8页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：军事类研究生资助课题(JY2021C091);装备综合研究资助项目(LJ20212A031176)。

摘　　要：从影响弹药消耗的主要因素入手,针对战役级不同作战阶段,建立基于系统动力学的弹药消耗预计模型。借助解释结构模型,确定关键影响因素,为基于系统动力学的阶段性弹药消耗预计方法提供重要变量依据。通过建立模型的因果回路图、系统流图,以及构造用于其描述各变量数学关系的主要动力学方程,形成完整的系统动力学模型。按照基本想定方案,充分考虑红蓝对抗作战中兵力增援情形和损耗情况,运用Vensim平台对模型仿真计算,得到面向作战进程的弹药消耗数据,经分析,可以进一步得出不同作战阶段弹药消耗规律和趋势,验证模型的适用性和方法的可行性,可为弹药供应保障部门掌握作战进程中的阶段性弹药消耗情况提供支持。Starting with the main factors affecting ammunition consumption,aiming at different operational stages at the campaign level,the ammunition consumption prediction model based on system dynamics is established.Firstly,the key influencing factors are determined by explaining the structural model,which provides an important variable basis for the phased ammunition consumption prediction method based on system dynamics.By establishing the causal loop diagram and system flow diagram of the model,and constructing the main dynamic equations used to describe the mathematical relationship of each variable,a complete system dynamic model is finally formed.According to the basic scenario,the reinforcement and loss of troops in red-blue confrontation operations are fully considered,and the model is simulated and calculated by Vensim platform,and the ammunition consumption data oriented to the combat process is obtained.By analysis,the laws and trends of ammunition consumption in different combat stages can be further obtained,the applicability of the model and the feasibility of the method are verified,and the support for the ammunition supply and support department is provided to grasp the staged ammunition consumption status in the combat process.

关 键 词：弹药消耗预计 阶段作战 弹药保障 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TJ410.2[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] E932[军事—军事装备学]