资源产业依赖对中国资源型城市收缩的影响机制  

Influencing mechanism of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of China's resource-based cities

作　　者：佟新华 郭淑睿 段海燕 黎波 TONG Xinhua;GUO Shurui;DUAN Haiyan;LI Bo(Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Institute of Eco-Environmental Forensics,Shandong University,Qingdao 266237,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚学院,长春130012 [2]山东大学生态环境损害鉴定研究院,青岛266237

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第10期2022-2033,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：吉林省自然科学基金项目(20210101094JC)。

摘　　要：【目的】资源型城市的高质量发展是中国城市高质量发展中的重要一环。当前中国资源型城市收缩明显,探究资源产业依赖对其城市收缩的影响机制,可为资源型城市的转型、进而推进城市的高质量发展提供参考。【方法】本文基于2010年和2020年中国792个县级及以上资源型城市截面数据,采用最小二乘回归模型、中介效应和调节效应模型,实证检验了资源产业依赖对资源型城市收缩的影响及其机制。【结果】(1)基准回归结果表明,在控制其他因素对城市收缩的影响后,资源产业依赖对城市收缩具有显著助推作用。(2)机制分析表明,资源产业依赖通过阻碍人力资本积累助推城市收缩。(3)调节效应检验结果显示,资源价格在资源产业依赖对城市收缩的影响中起负向调节作用。(4)资源产业依赖对资源型城市收缩的影响以及人力资本的中介效应具有异质性,其中资源产业依赖对城市收缩的助推作用在成熟型城市较为显著,人力资本的中介效应在成熟型和衰退型城市较为显著。【结论】提升人力资本水平、重视资源价格预测是推动依赖资源产业发展的资源型城市人口增长的可行之策。建议资源型城市转变资源依赖型产业发展模式,注重人力资本积累,提高资源价格预测能力。[Objective] The high-quality development of resource-based cities is an important part of the high-quality development of Chinese cities.At present,the shrinkage of resource-based cities in China is obvious.Exploring the mechanism of influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage can provide a reference for the transformation of resource-based cities and promote the high-quality development of cities.[Methods] Based on the cross-sectional data of 792 resource-based cities at or above the county level in China in 2010 and 2020,this study empirically tested the influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of these cities and its mechanism by using the least square regression model,the mediation effect model,and the moderating effect model.[Results](1) The benchmark regression results showed that resource industry dependence had a significant promoting effect on urban shrinkage after controlling the influence of other factors on urban shrinkage.(2) Mechanism analysis showed that the resource industry relied on impeding the accumulation of human capital to promote urban shrinkage.(3) The results of moderating effect test showed that resource price had a negative moderating effect on the influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage.(4) The influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities and the intermediary effect of human capital were heterogeneous.The promoting effect of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities was more significant in mature cities,while the intermediary effect of human capital was more significant in mature and declining cities.[Conclusion] Improving the level of human capital and paying attention to resource price forecasting are feasible measures to promote the population growth of resource-based cities which depend on the development of resource industries.It is suggested that resource-based cities should change the development mode of resource-dependent industries,pay attention to the a

关 键 词：资源型城市 矿业城市 城市收缩 资源产业依赖 县域 中介效应模型 中国 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F124