基于复杂网络的石油储罐火灾事故链风险分析  

Risk analysis of oil tank fire accident chain based on complex network

作　　者：陈慧宇 夏登友 臧娜 陈昶霖 Chen Huiyu;Xia Dengyou;Zang Na;Chen Changlin(Graduate School,China People's Police University,Hebei Langfang 065000,China;Rescue Command College,China People's Police University,Hebei Langfang 065000,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Emergency Rescue Technology,Hebei Langfang 065000,China;College of Foreign Security,China People's Police University,Hebei Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学研究生院,河北廊坊065000 [2]中国人民警察大学救援指挥学院,河北廊坊065000 [3]河北省应急救援技术重点实验室,河北廊坊065000 [4]中国人民警察大学涉外安保学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2024年第11期1495-1499,共5页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52174224)。

摘　　要：为了解决石油储罐发生安全事故后情景演化过程难以预测的问题,利用复杂网络理论研究石油储罐火灾事故情景演化过程。首先,分析了72起石油储罐火灾案例,确定13个典型情景作为节点,依据情景发展演化逻辑关系构建事故链网络;然后,建立了基于复杂网络的火灾事故链风险评估模型,评估节点的重要度以及节点与节点之间连边的风险度;最后,以福建漳州古雷PX项目爆炸事故为例验证该方法的可行性与可靠性。研究表明:该风险分析模型可以揭示石油储罐火灾事故链中的关键节点和关联关系,能及时分析事故链发展方向,提高应急救援队伍应对石油储罐火灾事故的能力。In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to predict the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident,the complex network theory is used to study the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident.Firstly,72 oil storage tank fire cases are analyzed,13 typical scenarios are identified as nodes,and the accident chain network is constructed according to the logical relationship of scenario development.Then,the risk assessment model of fire accident chain based on complex network is established to evaluate the importance of nodes and the risk degree of connecting edges between nodes.Finally,the explosion accident of Gulei PX project in Zhangzhou,Fujian Province was taken as an example to verify the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method.The research shows that the risk analysis model can reveal the key nodes and correlation in the oil storage tank fire accident chain,analyze the development direction of the accident chain in time,and improve the ability of emergency rescue teams to deal with oil storage tank fire accidents.

关 键 词：石油储罐 情景演化 复杂网络 事故链 风险分析 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]