长三角城市收缩的时空特征及数字经济影响的内在机制  

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Urban Shrinkage and Internal Mechanism of the Impact of Digital Economy in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：张强劲[1] 吕欣蕊 陈嘉豪 陶雪飞 ZHANG Qiangjing;LYU Xinrui;CHEN Jiahao;TAO Xuefei(School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Jiangxi Vocational College of Finance and Economics,Jiujiang 332000,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650500 [2]江西财经职业学院,江西九江332000

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第10期76-85,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目(71963037);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队(2023CX05)。

摘　　要：文章以长三角一体化区域内37个城市2011—2020年面板数据为样本,通过构建人口指数模型测算城市收缩程度以识别收缩城市类型,分析城市收缩的时空变化特征,并研究数字经济发展对城市收缩的影响机制。结果表明:(1)数字经济发展对城市人口指数的影响,在长三角全样本城市中存在显著的直接效应和产业结构升级的中介效应;(2)对长三角区域内收缩城市样本,直接效应和中介效应均不显著。最后,针对正在经历收缩的城市,提出应积极推进产业数字化进程,创造更多的就业机会,压缩城市收缩周期,尽快跨过可能存在的门槛,进入二者良性互动平衡发展的建议。Based on the panel data from 37 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region from 2011 to 2020,this paper constructs a population index model to measure the degree of urban shrinkage,identifies the types of shrinking cities,analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban shrinkage,and studies the impact mechanism of digital economy development on urban shrinkage.Research shows that:1)The development of digital economy has a significant direct effect on urban population index,as well as a mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading,in the YRD.2)For the sample of shrinking cities in the YRD region,both direct and mediating effects are not significant.It is suggested that cities experiencing shrinkage should actively promote the process of industrial digitization,create more employment opportunities,compress the urban shrinkage cycle,and quickly cross possible barriers to enter a balanced development of positive interaction between the two.

关 键 词：城市收缩 数字经济 人口 长三角 产业结构升级 中介效应 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济] F064.1