货币政策危机管理、货币调控概念误区与货币中介目标评价  

Crisis Management of Monetary Policy,Conceptual Misunderstanding of Monetary Regulation,and Evaluation of Monetary Intermediary Target

作　　者：刘达禹[1] 陆宇 宋洋 LIU Dayu;LU Yu;SONG Yang(Jilin University,Changchun,China;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012 [2]西南财经大学财政税务学院,611130

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第9期20-37,共18页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“央行沟通语境分析、通胀预期形成机制与中央银行信誉优化研究”(2024T170338);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“央行沟通语义识别、通货膨胀预期引导与央行信誉优化研究”(2024M751074)。

摘　　要：本文从现实货币政策传导入手,详细梳理了货币政策研究中的几个常见争议,并对三种主要货币中介目标(M2、社会融资规模和政策利率)的危机管理能力进行了识别,主要得出如下结论:第一,“量调实体、价管金融”是货币政策危机管理的常见方式,这是因为货币供给向实体端传导的速度要快于利率,而利率对资产价格的指示作用则强于货币数量变动;第二,相比于操作端,中央银行更应注重对货币中介目标的培育和管理,这是因为货币中介目标具有便于理解、构架稳定和与实体经济高度关联等显性优势;第三,量价转型绝不代表放弃培育有效的数量型货币中介,而是应强调常态化时期的价格型中介管理,但又不仅限于价格型中介的单边盯住;第四,社会融资规模与实际经济目标的相关度较高,并且对产出和通胀的调控力度亦明显优于M2和政策利率,因此,其更适合作为管理大幅实体经济波动和经济危机的政策工具。Since the outbreak of the global public health event,China’s business cycle fluctuations have increased significantly,which has challenged the normal regulation of monetary policy,and the discussion on the crisis management of monetary policy has begun to prevail rapidly.From the angle of monetary policy transmission in reality,this paper explains several common controversies and misunderstandings in existing research in detail and identifies the crisis management ability of three main monetary intermediary targets(M2,social financing scale,and policy interest rate).Our core contribution can be described in four aspects.Firstly,based on monetary policy practice,this paper elaborates on the transmission mechanism of China’s monetary policy.Secondly,this paper decomposes the M2 and social financing scale indicators and finds that the core difference between them comes from the government bond,which is a part of the social financing scale but not of M2.Thirdly,this paper provides the essential character of LPR in detail.In crisis periods,LPR can be completely controlled by the central bank,while during normal periods,it can be determined by market factors.Fourthly,this paper constructs a complete system to evaluate the crisis management ability of monetary intermediary targets and finds that the social financing scale is superior to others in all aspects.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,quantity-based intermediary targets regulating real economy and price-based intermediary targets regulating virtual part’is a common rule for monetary policy regulation,because the transmission speed of money supply to the real economy is faster than interest rate,and asset prices are more sensitive to changes in money supply.Therefore,despite the recent emphasis on the transition from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy by the central bank,monetary authorities should not ignore monitoring the quantity aspect,which remains a critical impact on managing economic crises.Secondly,compared with th

关 键 词：货币政策危机管理 货币政策传导机制 货币调控概念误区 货币中介目标 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]