公共支出区域均等化政策效果的定量评估——基于量化空间一般均衡模型的分析  

Quantitative Evaluation of the Effect of Equalization of Fiscal Expenditure among Regions:Analysis Based on Quantitative Spatial General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：周慧珺 龚六堂[2,3] ZHOU Huijun;GONG Liutang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China;Peking University,Beijing,China;Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836 [2]北京大学光华管理学院 [3]北京工商大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第9期38-55,共18页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“实质性减税降费与经济高质量发展研究”(19ZDA069);国家自然科学基金青年项目“量化空间一般均衡模型框架下的地区公共服务支出配置与区域不平等问题研究”(72203229)。

摘　　要：本文构建包含人口流动和异质性居民偏好的量化空间一般均衡模型,模拟并分析了区域财政支出均等化政策的定量效果。研究表明,各地区人均生产性支出均等化将带来产出提升和福利改进,而社会保障性支出的完全均等化则会带来更大幅度的福利改善和小幅产出回落。在逐步提高生产性支出均等化程度的过程中,社会总福利的改善程度将不断上升,产出的改善程度则先增加后下降;在逐步提高社会保障性支出均等化程度的过程中,福利的改善幅度和产出的下降幅度均会越来越大。因此,当政策目标越偏向于居民福利时,越倾向于保障各项支出的区域间均等化,政策目标越偏向于经济产出时,则越偏向于保持大城市的高公共支出水平。In recent years,China’s economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development,possessing a series of advantages and conditions for the long-term sustainable development.However,the challenge of imbalances and insufficient in development still persists,with the imbalances among regions standing out as one of the most significant issues.Accordingly,the government has implemented a series of policy to promote regional economic development and narrow the gap among regions.A crucial policy in this regard is the preferential allocation of fiscal expenditure across regions.When the central government increases transfer payments to improve the per capita fiscal expenditure in underdeveloped regions,the living standard of the local residents in these regions can indeed be improved.However,the total financial resources of the central government are limited.The financial support received by developed regions may decrease,potentially slowing the economic growth in these regions,and then leading to a decrease in overall economic output and social welfare.Then,does the equalization of fiscal expenditure contribute to overall economic output and the social welfare.If so,what is the quantitative impact of the policy?Furthermore,fiscal expenditure encompass various categories,such as social security,transportation and so on.Different types of fiscal expenditure may have distinct influences on the economy in terms of channels and magnitude.Which type of expenditure leads to the most effective results,what is the optimal allocation of the fiscal expenditure?These issues are of significant importance in the field of regional development,yet still lack systematic theoretical research.By constructing a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model incorporating migration and heterogeneous workers’preferences,this paper explores the quantitative effect of the equalization of fiscal expenditure among regions on the economic output and social welfare.The results show that:Firstly,the equali

关 键 词：人口流动 要素配置 财政支出均等化 政府目标 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]