贸易保护与企业内部出口调整:基于贸易摩擦的分析  

Trade Protectionism and Within-Firm Export Adjustment:Evidence from China-US Trade War

作　　者：黑烨 田巍 HEI Ye;TIAN Wei(Liaoning University,Shenyang,China;Peking University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院,110100 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第9期113-129,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中美贸易摩擦量化评估研究:企业策略、产品价格和贸易转移”(72073005);国家社会科学基金重大研究专项项目“美国对华经济制裁研究”(21VMG006)。

摘　　要：贸易成本提高会对企业出口造成严重影响,在贸易保护主义逐渐抬头的背景下,评估加征关税造成的中国企业内部出口调整具有重要的意义。本文通过分析2017-2019年海关企业层面数据发现,美国对华加征关税导致中国企业对美国市场的出口产品种类减少,出口集中于核心产品,出口产品离散程度下降,但是,在其他市场则呈现相反的特征。总体来说,美国加征关税导致中国企业出口产品种类增加。本文发现,对其他市场的出口产品种类增加是由于贸易转移与转口贸易造成的。分解来看,企业出口产品种类增加来源于企业平均出口产品数量增加和出口市场增加两个方面。另外,对美出口减少主要体现在中间品,对其他市场则是最终品出口产品种类显著增加,同质品受关税影响程度要大于差异品。本文的结论对于从企业内部调整视角理解中国企业应对贸易保护带来的冲击具有启示意义。After decades of trade liberalization,trade protectionism has risen.Since 2018,the US has launched several waves of tariff increases against China which made a surge in the average US import tariffs from 3.1%in 2017 to 19.3%at the end of 2019.This paper explores how Chinese exporters manage trade protection from the view of firm export adjustment.Existing research has found that when trade costs decrease,companies tend to concentrate their production on products with lower marginal costs due to mechanisms such as market competition and cost reduction,thereby improving productivity.However,firms need to pay the sunk cost to learn export,so the results of the decline of trade cost may not be symmetric to the case in trade cost increase.What we have learned under trade liberalization may not be applicable to trade protectionism,so empirical analysis is needed to understand the effects of trade protection.This paper uses China’s firm-level customs data from 2017 to 2019 to investigate firms’adjustment of export scope,export entropy,and the share of core products to the increase of tariff.Empirical results show that in the short term,trade protection induces Chinese exporters to decline export scope to the US and focus on core products.At the same time,the high tariffs have triggered a trade deflection effect,making Chinese exporters shift their exports to other destination countries.Specifically,the increase in tariffs decreases the export scope to the US by 1.58%and increases the export scope to other countries by 22.11%.Overall,firms’global export scope has increased.Additionally,the imposition of additional tariffs has led to a rise in the share of core products for Chinese export firms,but in markets outside the US,the share of core products has decreased.At the same time,the export entropy for the US market increases,while the export entropy for other markets declines.Intuitively,additional duties increase export prices and decrease market demands for targeted products.Firms eliminate high marginal cost pr

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 企业内部出口调整 贸易转移 拓展边际 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F741.2[经济管理—产业经济]