数字经济发展会影响低技能劳动力职业转换吗?  

Can Digital Economy Affect the Career Transition of Low-skilled Workers?

作　　者：原新[1] 王丽晶 方守林 Yuan Xin;Wang Lijing;Fang Shoulin(Institute of Population and Development,School of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2024年第5期82-97,共16页Population Research

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口负增长时代的国家人口发展战略研究”(22ZDA098)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着数字经济的就业拉动作用日益增强,低技能劳动力职业转换迎来新的契机。基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用二元Logit模型实证考察数字经济发展对低技能劳动力职业转换的影响及其具体作用机制。研究发现:数字经济发展能够显著促进低技能劳动力职业转换;数字经济发展对农业户籍、东部地区、中部地区的低技能劳动力的职业转换具有明显的促进作用;就业效应和收入效应是数字经济发展促进低技能劳动力职业转换的重要机制;数字经济发展对高能力水平和参加过技能培训的低技能劳动力职业转换的促进作用更加明显;数字经济发展显著提升了低技能劳动力的职业层次,促进其进入高声望和中低声望职业。鉴于此,建议加强就业服务,支持自主创业,开展技能培训。The digital economy has a profound impact on employment. It provides more opportunities to low-skilled workers. Based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) data, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital economy on the career transition of low-skilled workers by employing a binary Logit model. The findings indicate that digital economy significantly increases the odds ratio of their career transition of low-skilled workers. Notably, low-skilled workers who are from agricultural households or located in the eastern and central regions experience a substantial boost in the career transition. The study identifies two key mechanisms driving this impact: employment effects and income effects. Moreover, low-skilled workers with higher level of capability or training experiences are more likely to transition to new careers due to the digital economy. Digital economy enhances the occupational reputation of low-skilled workers, and promotes their advancement into high and medium-low prestige occupations. Strengthening employment services, providing entrepreneurship policies, and offering skill trainings are recommended.

关 键 词：数字经济 低技能劳动力 职业转换 创业 技能培训 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2[社会学] C975