人口老龄化对农地利用的影响研究--基于大样本微观农户的考察  

Impact of Population Ageing on Farmland Use:Analysis of Micro Farmers Based on Large Sample

作　　者：郑淋议 钱文荣[1,2] Zheng Linyi;Qian Wenrong(China Academy for Rural Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2024年第10期5-20,共16页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项(2024JZDZ064、2024JZDZ063);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(23YJC790203);浙江省哲学社会科学规划领军人才培育课题(24YJRC01ZD-1YB);浙江省教育厅一般科研项目(Y202351967);浙江省农村发展研究中心软科学课题(ZJSNYZX2024-2)。

摘　　要：农村人口老龄化问题较之城市更为严峻,它对农业生产的负面作用也愈加凸显。实证研究发现:(1)人口老龄化对农地利用具有显著的负面影响,它使得农地利用整体上从全部耕种向部分未耕种,甚至是全部未耕种的方向转变。(2)老人体能下降、返乡劳动力减少和养老金收入增加是人口老龄化引发农地利用方式转变的中介机制。同时,地形和农业机械化具有调节作用,山区的人口老龄化对农地利用的影响比平原地区更大,而农业机械化可缓解该负面影响。(3)人口老龄化具体会使农户减少农地耕种,降低农地转入以及增加农地抛荒。(4)上述农地利用方式的变化会导致粮食作物种植减少及粮食产量下降。因此,未来应健全农地流转市场,做好农业经营的代际传承,推进农业机械化服务市场建设,为人口老龄化形势下的粮食安全保驾护航。Population ageing is a global trend.As the country with the largest population and the largest elderly population in the world,China’s ageing population problem cannot be ignored.In recent years,the degree of population ageing in China has further gone up,and there has even been a rural-urban inversion in which the ageing of the rural population is higher than that of the urban area,faster than that of the urban area,regional differences are greater than that of the urban area,and the elderly population is larger than that of the urban area.Compared with urban areas,the problem of population ageing in rural areas is more serious,and its negative impact on agricultural production has become increasingly prominent.However,while the use of farmland is a fundamental and directional issue,most of the current literature focuses primarily on the impact of population ageing on agricultural production efficiency.Studies on the relationship between population ageing and farmland use are still relatively lacking.Based on a systematic review of relevant literature,this study takes the sample of farmers as the research object,adopts the latest published data of the China Rural Household Panel Survey in 2017 and 2019,and comprehensively employs the panel-ordered Logit model,panel multi-dimensional fixed effect model,moderation effect model and sub-sample regression method.Starting from the household level,it focuses on the overall effect and specific impact of rural population ageing on farmland use,and conducts an in-depth analysis of the underlying mediation mechanism and moderation mechanism,with a view to providing a reference for strengthening farmland use in the context of rural population ageing.Empirical studies have found that population ageing has a significant negative impact on farmland utilization as a whole,shifting farmland use from full cultivation to partial or even all uncultivated use.This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests such as transformation estimation methods and replacement of

关 键 词：农村人口老龄化 面板有序Logit模型 农地流转 农地抛荒 粮食安全 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F321.1[政治法律—中外政治制度]