“收之桑榆,失之东隅”:农业人口老龄化真能激励农户的农机服务采纳?  

Can Farming Population Aging Encourage Farmers’Adoption of Agricultural Mechanization Services?

作　　者：仇童伟 乔之芊 Qiu Tongwei;Qiao Zhiqian(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2024年第10期21-38,共18页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD084);国家自科基金青年项目(42401202);中国博士后科学基金项目(2021M702701)。

摘　　要：农村青壮年劳动力大规模流出及其诱发的农业人口老龄化,正在成为制约中国农业可持续发展及粮食安全的重要因素。在此过程中衍生的农机服务充当着重要的劳动替代型要素。然而,研究发现,农业人口老龄化显著降低了农户的农机服务采用率及农机服务作业面积占比。机制分析表明,农业劳动力机会成本的增加以及农地流转的市场化发展均加剧了农业人口老龄化对农户农机服务采纳的抑制作用。进一步分析显示,农业人口老龄化提高了农户转出农地和抛荒农地的可能性,并减少了农作物播种面积及粮食播种面积;农村养老保险体系的完善及要素市场化水平的提高都会强化农业人口老龄化与农机服务间的负相关关系。由此表明,农业人口老龄化在当前并不必然增加农户的农机服务需求,农业要素配置机会成本的变化使得农机服务的需求主体正在发生转换,政策方向需要及时作出调整。In recent years,the sharp rise in agricultural production costs,particularly labor costs,has driven up a significant demand for labor-saving alternatives in China.This need is especially urgent given the ongoing aging of the agricultural workforce.For labor-intensive tasks in agriculture,mechanization appears to be a necessary response to the challenges posed by farming population aging(FPA).Agricultural mechanization services(AMS)are particularly appealing because they reduce the sunk costs associated with owning agricultural machinery for small farmers,thereby enhancing their access to such equipment.Moreover,AMS have a greater impact on improving agricultural productivity than self-owned machinery.The central question is whether the FPA will inevitably increase farmers’demand for AMS.Logically,FPA could either heighten farmers’demand for labor-saving AMS or decrease their demand by altering their factor allocation decisions.To investigate into the relationship between FPA and AMS,this article undertakes two key tasks.First,using data from the 2017-2021 China Household Finance Survey,the instrumental variable method is employed to identify the impact of FPA on farmers’adoption of AMS.Second,the study examines why the effect of FPA on AMS development shifts over time,focusing on labor opportunity costs and market-oriented land transfers.The estimated results indicate that FPA significantly reduces both the adoption rate of AMS among farmers and the proportion of land area managed using AMS.Mechanism analysis reveals that rising opportunity costs of agricultural labor and the development of market-oriented land transfers exacerbate the inhibitory effect of FPA on AMS adoption.Further analysis suggests that improvements in the rural social security system and increased factor marketization intensify the negative correlation between FPA and AMS.The contributions of this article are twofold.First,it is the first to explore the inherent logic of how FPA suppresses farmers’adoption of AMS.Internationally,schol

关 键 词：农机服务 农业人口老龄化 农业劳动力机会成本 农地流转市场化 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F323.3[政治法律—中外政治制度]