宏观审慎管理配合下的最优货币政策选择--基于中国的DSGE模拟分析  

The Optimal Monetary Policy Choice in Cooperation with Macro-Prudential Management:Based on China’s DSGE Analysis

作　　者：韩鑫韬[1] 张晓敏[2] 刘星[3] Han Xintao;Zhang Xiaomin;Liu Xing(The Chongqing Branch of the People’s Bank of China,Chongqing 401147,China;The Fuling Branch of the People’s Bank of China,Chongqing 408000,China;School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行重庆市分行,重庆401147 [2]中国人民银行涪陵分行,重庆408000 [3]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第10期1-10,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71232004);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172082);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71802029)。

摘　　要：通过建立基于企业“二元”特征、影子银行、政府债务以及考虑货币供应量的利率规则等因素的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究了宏观审慎配合下的我国最优货币政策选择。分析结果表明,在考虑宏观审慎管理配合的情形下,当宏观经济受到国有企业和非国有企业技术冲击时,考虑货币供给因素的利率规则比仅考虑平滑因素的利率规则更有助于维护经济社会的短期和长期稳定;当受到金融冲击时,考虑货币供给因素的利率规则比仅考虑平滑因素的利率规则对经济增长率、政府支出、利率、就业、信贷等变量的冲击更小,但需要更长的时间来实现均衡;即使不考虑宏观审慎管理,受到金融冲击后,考虑货币供给因素的利率规则能够更快地控制宏观经济的稳定性,并能更有效地调节金融市场的流动性。同时,在两种技术冲击和金融冲击下,考虑货币供给因素的利率规则产生的福利损失均小于仅考虑平滑因素的利率规则产生的福利损失。本文不仅丰富了我国最优货币政策研究成果,更为中央银行在决策时如何平衡宏观审慎政策和货币政策提供了思路。Since the 2008 financial crisis,macro-prudential management has gradually become one important responsibilities of major central banks around the world.Macro-prudential policies and monetary policies are“involved”each other,so central banks considering macro-prudential policies face more complicated choices in choosing the optimal monetary policies than those considering monetary policies alone.Taking China as an example,the optimal choice of monetary policy in cooperation with macro-prudential coordination is studied by establishing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model based on the characteristics of China,such as the“binary”enterprises,shadow banking,government debt,and interest rate rules considering the money supply.Not only the research results of China's optimal monetary policy are enriched,but also ideas on how to balance macro-prudential policy and monetary policy when the central bank makes decisions are provided.The results show that considering the cooperation with macro-prudential management,the interest rate rule considering the money supply factor is more helpful to maintain the short-term and long-term stability of the social economy than the interest rate rule considering only the smoothing factor when the macroeconomic economy is affected by the technological shocks of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.In case of financial shock,the interest rate rule that considers money supply factor has less impact on economic growth rate,government expenditure,central bank’s interest rate,employment,credit and other variables than the interest rate rule that only considers smoothing factor,but it takes longer time to achieve equilibrium.Even if macro-prudential management is not taken into account,after financial shocks,interest rate rules considering money supply factors can control macroeconomic stability more quickly,and regulate liquidity of financial market more effectively.Moreover,under technical shock and financial shock,the welfare loss caused by the int

关 键 词：最优货币政策规则 宏观审慎管理 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]