家庭债务、宏观经济波动与房价预期冲击  

Household Debt,Macroeconomic Fluctuation and Expected Shock of House Price

作　　者：刘河北 王君斌[2,3] 费茂清[2] Liu Hebei;Wang Junbin;Fei Maoqing(Economic and Trade College、Maritime Silk Road and Guangxi Regional Development Institute,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Financial Security,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院、海上丝绸之路与广西区域发展研究院,广西南宁530003 [2]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130 [3]西南财经大学金融安全协同创新中心,四川成都611130

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第10期56-65,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD134);广西财经学院博士科研启动基金项目(BS2021018);广西财经学院“应用经济学广西一流学科建设项目。

摘　　要：近年来中国家庭债务的规模持续增长的同时,中国房价和房地产投资也呈现快速上升趋势,而GDP、消费和固定资产投资的增长速度却出现不同程度下降,即出现了“脱实向虚”的经济现象。本文拟从房价预期角度诠释上述经济现象。首先,基于2007-2019年的统计数据发现:家庭债务持续增加,但波动较小;家庭债务与主要宏观经济变量呈现弱正相关。而后构建了一个包含异质性家庭、信贷约束与GHH效用函数的动态随机一般均衡模型,在技术冲击和房价上涨弱预期冲击下,模型能够较好地解释以上周期特征。当技术冲击的财富效应大于房价上涨弱预期冲击的投机效应时,财富效应占主导,总需求增加,家庭债务、房地产市场与实体经济形成正向共动。一旦房价上涨形成强预期,投机效应占主导,家庭债务将抑制总需求、挤出实体经济,进而出现家庭债务、房价、房地产投资快速上升而GDP、消费和固定资产投资下降的现象,即家庭债务、房地产市场与实体经济将反向共动,信贷约束具有放大效应。反事实实验发现,房价上涨强预期将产生经济“脱实向虚”问题,而房价下跌强预期对家庭债务和房地产市场具有显著的“去杠杆”和紧缩效应,房价稳预期有利于宏观经济平稳运行。In recent years,the scale of China's household debt continues to grow.At the same time,China's housing prices and real estate investment show a rapid upward trend,while the growth rate of GDP,consumption and fixed asset investment has decreased to varying degrees.This is the phenomenon of“shifting from real to fictitious”.It intends to interpret the above economic phenomenon from the perspective of housing price expectation in this paper.Based on the statistical data from 2007 to 2019,it is found that:household debt continues to increase,but the volatility is small;household debt and the main macroeconomic variables show a weak positive correlation.Then a DSGE model is built which including heterogeneous households,credit constraints and GHH utility function.Numerical simulation shows that under the impact of technology shock and weak expectation shock of housing price rising,the model can explain the cyclical characteristics of household debt,real estate market and real economy.When the wealth effect of technology shock is greater than the speculative effect of weak expected shock of house price rising,the wealth effect dominates,the total demand increases,and the household debt forms a positive co-movement with the real estate market and the real economy.If the expectation of house prices rising becomes stronger,speculative effect will dominate,and household debt,real estate market and real economy will move in reverse.Once a strong expectation of rising house prices is formed and speculative effect is dominant,household debt will restrain aggregate demand and crowd out the real economy.And then household debt,house prices and real estate investment will rise rapidly,while GDP,consumption and fixed asset investment will decline.That is to say,household debt,real estate market and real economy will move in reverse,and credit constraints will have amplification effect.The counterfactual simulation shows that the strong expectation of house price rising will lead to the problem of“shifting from real to ficti

关 键 词：家庭债务 脱实向虚 稳预期 财富效应 投机效应 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]