基于MaxEnt模型预测未来气候下月见草在黑龙江省的潜在适生区  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas for Oenothera biennis Under Future Climate in Heilongjiang Province Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：刘旭 付胜杰 穆立蔷[1] LIU Xu;FU Shengjie;MU Liqiang(College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150000)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第31期97-104,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：黑龙江省林业和草原局应急项目“黑龙江省森林、草原、湿地生态系统外来入侵物种普查”(HLC202200YJ2)。

摘　　要：预测月见草(Oenothera biennis)在黑龙江省的潜在适生区及未来气候条件下的变化规律,以期为进一步监测和防治提供依据。运用MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件等软件预测当前及未来2个时期(2021—2040、2041—2060年)3种碳排放(ssp126、ssp370、ssp585)气候情景下月见草分布的变化规律,分析影响黑龙江省月见草分布的主导环境因子及扩张趋势。结果表明:(1)Maxent模型预测的AUC值达0.864,预测结果准确。(2)对月见草生境影响较大的环境因子为年平均降水量(26.5%)、最冷月最低温度(21.3%)、年平均温度(16.9%)。(3)月见草在黑龙江省的适生面积达23.16×104km^(2)。其中高适生区面积占全省的9.11%。(4)在未来气候21世纪40年代变化情景下,月见草适生区在ssp126、ssp370、ssp585气候条件下分别增加了5.78%、5.16%、8.52%,21世纪60年代变化情景下,月见草适生区在3种气候条件下分别增加了7.51%、8.95%、8.66%。未来气候变化下,入侵植物月见草适生区呈现由中心向四周扩散趋势,年平均降水是影响月见草分布的主要影响因子。This study predicts the potential suitable areas for Oenothera biennis in Heilongjiang Province and its changing patterns under future climate conditions,providing a basis for further monitoring and control efforts.This study focused on the invasive plant O.biennis and used software such as MaxEnt and ArcGIS to predict the changes in its distribution under three carbon emission scenarios(ssp126,ssp370,ssp585)for the present and two future periods(2021-2040,2041-2060).The study also analyzed the dominant environmental factors and expansion trends that affected the distribution of O.biennis in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that:(1)the MaxEnt model predicted an AUC value of 0.864,indicating accurate predictions.(2)The environmental factors with the greatest impact on the habitat of O.biennis were annual average precipitation(26.5%),coldest month minimum temperature(21.3%),and annual average temperature(16.9%).(3)The suitable area for O.biennis in Heilongjiang Province was 231600 km^(2),with high suitability accounting for 9.11%of the province.(4)Under the future climate change scenario of the 2040s,the suitable area for O.biennis increased by 5.78%,5.16%,and 8.52%under the ssp126,ssp370,and ssp585 climate conditions,respectively.Under the 2060s scenario,the suitable area increased by 7.51%,8.95%,and 8.66%under the three climate conditions.Under future climate change,the suitable area for the invasive plant O.biennis showed a trend of spreading from the center to the periphery,with average annual rainfall being the main influencing factors for its distribution.

关 键 词：月见草 MaxEnt模型 适生区 分布格局 气候 

分 类 号：S765.1[农业科学—森林保护学]