独花兰潜在地理分布及其对植被指数时空变化的响应  

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Changnienia amoena based on MaxEnt model and its response to spatiotemporal variation of vegetation index

作　　者：郑孙元 王明强 腊孟珂 孙小燕 芦昱 柳絮飞 Zheng Sunyuan;Wang Mingqiang;La Mengke;Sun Xiaoyan;Lu Yu;Liu Xufei(Academy of Environmental Planning Design,Co.,Ltd.Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;State-owned Dongtai City Forest Farm,Dongtai 224200,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境规划设计研究院集团股份公司,江苏南京210093 [2]国营东台市林场,江苏东台224200

出　　处：《江苏林业科技》2024年第5期1-8,共8页Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science & Technology

基　　金：南京绿化园林局项目“南京市野生植物资源调查和监测评估”。

摘　　要：该研究基于地理信息系统(GIS)和MaxEnt模型,利用独花兰72个有效样本数据(含气候、土壤、海拔、土地利用类型、植被类型、NDVI等32个环境因子数据),预测独花兰潜在适宜分布区,并基于1998年以来的NDVI及土地利用类型变化,分析20 a来独花兰潜在分布面积对归一化植被指数(NDVI)和人为活动的响应。结果表明:独花兰总适生区面积为185463万km^(2),最适区域为23797万km^(2)。独花兰潜在适生分布区域离散狭小,斑块状分布显著。通过模型预测,湖北恩施州与安徽六安市为独花兰种质资源保护的核心区域。影响独兰花分布的环境因子中,NDVI对其影响最大,贡献率最大为2597%。1998—2023年间独花兰潜在分布区域总体变化不大,随着NDVI与土地利用类型变化而波动变化,从历年土地利用类型与NDVI的贡献率看,土地利用类型的贡献率呈现逐年下降趋势;而NDVI因子贡献率则呈现逐年上升趋势,因此NDVI因子对独花兰分布存在较强影响,以土地利用类型空间分布数据代表的人为干扰活动对独花兰的影响逐渐减少。Based on geographic information system(GIS)and MaxEnt model,with 72 valid sample data of Changnienia amoena,including 32 environmental factors(7 types),e.g.climate,soil,altitude,land use type,vegetation type,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),the potential suitable distribution area was predicted.And based on the changes of NDVI and land use type since 1998,the response of the potential distribution area to NDVI and human activities in the past over 20 years was also analyzed.The results showed that the total suitable area was 185463 km^(2),with the most suitable area of 2379 km^(2),characteristic of being scattered,narrow and obviously patchy at present.Enshi Prefecture,Hubei Province and Lu’an City,Anhui Province are predicted as the core areas for the protection of the germplasm resources.The prediction results of the MaxEnt model showed that the top 7 environmental factors NDVI,precipitation of the driest month,minimum temperature of the coldest month,seasonal variation of temperature,altitude,land use types and preapitation of the wellest month,with the cumulative contribution rate totally reaching 93.71%,among which NDVI getting the maximum of 25.97%.And from 1998 to 2023,the overall potential distribution area had a little change,and fluctuated with changes in NDVI and land use type.Judged from the contribution rate of land use types and NDVI year by year,the contribution rate of land use type has shown a downward trend while the contribution rate of NDVI has shown an upward trend.Therefore,we regard that NDVI has a strong influence on the potential distribution area.The impact of human disturbance represented by land use type on C.amoena is gradually reduced.

关 键 词：独花兰 MaxEnt模型 预测 潜在分布 环境因子 

分 类 号：Q948.2[生物学—植物学] Q949.718.430.3