中国火电行业碳排放的时空演变与驱动因素分析  

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors analysis of carbon emissions in China’s thermal power industry

作　　者：汪颖翔 余哲 黄河曲 李斯吾 董明齐 王平凡 王丹 WANG Yingxiang;YU Zhe;HUANG Hequ;LI Siwu;DONG Mingqi;WANG Pingfan;WANG Dan(Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan Hubei 430000;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen Guangdong 440300;Daqing Natural Resources Bureau,Daqing Heilongjiang 163000;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600)

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430000 [2]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳440300 [3]大庆市自然资源局,黑龙江大庆163000 [4]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201600

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2024年第11期1662-1668,1678,共8页Environmental Pollution & Control

摘　　要：目前,中国火力发电量占全国发电总量的比例呈下降趋势,但火电仍是重要的电力来源,为实现电力系统能源结构的低碳转型,必须推动火电行业优化碳排放结构,提高行业生产效率。因此,基于2005—2020年中国省域的碳排放数据,分析中国火电行业的时间序列和空间相关性,运用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型,探索火电行业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:1)2005—2020年,中国火电行业碳排放总量呈上升趋势,度电碳排放强度呈下降趋势,各省级碳排放的空间差异整体减弱;2)2005—2020年,火电装机容量、电源结构、能源消费量和焦煤生产量对省域碳排放有正向影响,人均国内生产总值(GDP)、总人口对省域碳排放有负向影响。At present,China’s thermal power generation accounts for a decreasing proportion of the country’s total power generation,but thermal power is still important source of electricity in China.To achieve a low-carbon transformation of the energy structure of the power system,it is necessary to optimize the structure of carbon emissions,and improve the productivity of the thermal power industry.Therefore,based on the carbon emission-related data of different provinces in China from 2005 to 2020,this study analyzed the time-series and spatial autocorrelation of China’s thermal power industry,and applied the spatio-temporal geographically-weighted regression(GTWR)model to explore the influencing factors of the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry.The results showed that:1)from 2005 to 2020,carbon total emissions from China’s thermal power industry showed an upward trend,carbon emission intensity per kilowatt-hour showed a downward trend,and the difference among provincial regions was gradually decreasing.2)From 2005 to 2020,installed thermal power capacity,power structure,energy consumption and coking coal production had positive effect on provincial carbon emissions,while per capita GDP and total population had a negative effect on provincial carbon emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放总量 度电碳排放强度 火电行业 时空地理加权回归模型 时空演变 

分 类 号：X773[环境科学与工程—环境工程]