水量调度实施对东江流域径流影响分析  

Influence of Water Regulation on Runoff in Dongjiang River Basin

作　　者：庄胜杰 成忠理 郑亚峰 王大刚 ZHUANG Shengjie;CHENG Zhongli;ZHENG Yafeng;WANG Dagang(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Dongjiang River Basin Administration,Huizhou 516003,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510006 [2]广东省东江流域管理局,广东惠州516003

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第11期14-23,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52079151、52111540261)。

摘　　要：为综合分析水量调度实施对东江流域三大水库出库流量以及重要断面流量的影响,研究采用MannKendall趋势检验法对东江流域内降雨来水趋势变化进行分析;通过连续滑动平均窗口法以及多变量动态时间规整法识别东江流域内典型低流量事件与相似事件,对三大水库的出库过程以及重要断面的流量变化进行研究。结果表明,自三大水库建成以来,东江流域内汛期、枯水期降雨来水情况未有明显变化;水量调度实施后,博罗、龙川断面枯水年流量达标率分别由42%、86%提高到59%、98%,较调度前有明显提高;在4场典型事件中,枯水期降雨来水相似条件下三大水库出库过程更加稳定,博罗断面平均流量由260 m^(3)/s提高到381 m^(3)/s,水量调度效果显著。研究结果表明了水量调度实施的必要性,为继续开展水量调度工作提供了理论依据。To comprehensively analyze the influence of water regulation on the outflow of the three major reservoirs and the flow rates at key sections in the Dongjiang River Basin,this study employs the Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the changes in the rainfall-runoff trend across the Dongjiang River Basin.Through the utilization of the continuous sliding window method and the multivariate dynamic time warping(MDTW)method,typical low-flow events are identified.Furthermore,similar events within the Dongjiang River Basin are effectively pinpointed.The investigation centers on the outflow processes of the three major reservoirs and the corresponding flow variations at critical sections.The results indicate that since the establishment of the three major reservoirs,there has been no significant alteration in rainfall-runoff patterns during both flood seasons and dry seasons in the Dongjiang River Basin.After water regulation,the compliance rate of dry year flow at the Boluo and Longchuan sections experienced a substantial increase,rising from 42%and 86%to 59%and 98%,respectively,which is significantly higher than that before water regulation.In examining four typical events under similar conditions,the outflow processes of the three major reservoirs demonstrated heightened stability.Notably,the average flow at the Boluo section escalated from 260 to 381 m^(3)/s.This pivotal enhancement underscores the necessity for water regulation,providing a theoretical foundation for its continuation.

关 键 词：趋势检验 动态时间规整 滑动窗口 水量调度 相似事件识别 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]