西江流域水资源演变情势分析  

Evolution Trend of Water Resources in Xijiang River Basin

作　　者：史栩帆 姚志斌 张灿 SHI Xufan;YAO Zhibin;ZHANG Can(Comprehensive Technology Center of Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Changde Water Conservancy and Hydropower Design Institute,Changde 415000,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利综合技术中心,广东广州510611 [2]常德市水利水电勘测设计院,湖南常德415000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第11期79-86,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：科技基础资源调查专项资助项目(2019FY101900)。

摘　　要：受自然地理因素和人类活动影响,水资源演变有一定的规律性和周期性。为掌握西江流域水资源演变情况,以珠江片第三次水资源调查评价数据成果为基础,采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、定量分离等方法,对西江流域年降水量、年蒸发量、水资源量进行评价,分析降水与人类活动对水资源情势的影响。结果表明:西江流域年降水量和年径流量呈不显著波动上升趋势;流域年降水量与高要站年径流量变化一致,均包括3个枯水段和3个丰水段;1971—2016年4个年代降水对径流影响量为-95.8亿~21.2亿m^(3);人类活动的直接影响使径流减小且影响程度逐渐增大;人类活动的间接影响使径流增大。分析结论为西江流域水资源规划的制定、水资源的开发利用、重大水利工程的建设提供重要依据。Influenced by natural geographical factors and human activities,the evolution of water resources has a certain regularity and periodicity.In order to understand the evolution trend of water resources in Xijiang River Basin,based on the data of the third water resources survey and evaluation in the Pearl River area,the annual precipitation,evaporation,and water resources in Xijiang River Basin were assessed,and the impact of precipitation and human activities on the water resources situation was analyzed by using the moving average method,Mann-Kendall trend test,and quantitative assessment method.The results indicate that the annual precipitation and annual runoff in Xijiang River Basin show an insignificant upward trend of fluctuation.The annual precipitation of the basin is consistent with the annual runoff variation of Gaoyao Station,including three dry phases and three abundant water phases.The impact of precipitation on runoff in four stages from 1971 to 2016 ranges from−9.58 billion to 2.12 billion cubic meters.The direct impact of human activities makes the runoff decrease,and the influence increases gradually.The indirect impact of human activities increases runoff.The conclusion of this analysis provides an important foundation for the formulation of water resource planning,the development and utilization of water resources,and the construction of major water conservancy projects in Xijiang River Basin.

关 键 词：水资源 演变情势 人类活动 西江流域 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]