基于GIS的新疆维吾尔自治区山洪灾害风险评价  

Risk assessment of flash flood disasters based on GIS in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

作　　者：章嘉俊 董林 张娜[3] 杜俊[1,2] 陈超 唐文坚 ZHANG Jiajun;DONG Linyao;ZHANG Na;DU Jun;CHEN Chao;TANG Wenjian(Soil and Water Conservation Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Research Center on Mountain Torrents and Geologic Disaster Prevention,Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430010,China;Flood Control and Drought Relief Service Center of Water Resources Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830099,China;Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水土保持研究所,湖北武汉430010 [2]水利部山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区水利厅防汛抗旱服务中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830099 [4]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第11期81-88,95,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0111900);国家自然科学基金项目(41977171)。

摘　　要：山洪灾害风险评价可为山洪灾害致灾机理研究、风险区划等提供科学依据。基于GIS、地理探测器、层次分析法和自然灾害风险理论,以雪水当量、坡度、年最大1 h点雨量等9个指标数据为支撑,辨识新疆维吾尔自治区山洪灾害风险的主要驱动因子,并从致灾因子、孕灾环境和易损性3个方面对新疆山洪灾害风险进行评估。结果表明:坡度的单因子解释力最大,年最大1 h点雨量与其他各因子的交互类型均为非线性增强;全疆山洪灾害风险等级由高到低的面积占比依次为6.69%,13.63%,18.01%,25.42%和36.25%。总体上,新疆“三山”山脉的地质地貌和水文气象等条件对山洪形成具有重要影响,加强1 h短期降雨和融雪径流的监测预警,对当地抵御山洪具有现实意义。研究成果可为科学评估和预防新疆山洪灾害风险提供参考。Risk assessment of flash flood disasters provides a scientific basis for research on the disaster-causing mechanisms and risk zoning of flash floods.Based on GIS,geographic detectors,the analytic hierarchy process,and natural disaster risk theory,the main driving factors of flash flood disaster risk in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were identified with the support of nine index data points,such as snow water equivalent,slope and annual maximum 1-hour point rainfall.The risk assessment of flash flood disasters in Xinjiang was evaluated from three aspects:disaster-causing factors,disaster environment and vulnerability.The results show that the explanatory power of the single factor,slope,is the greatest,and the interaction between annual maximum 1-hour point rainfall and other factors exhibits nonlinear enhancement.The proportions of flash flood risk levels from high to low were 6.69%,13.63%,18.01%,25.42% and 36.25%,respectively.In general,the geological geomorphology and hydrometeorological conditions of the "Three Mountains" in Xinjiang significantly impact the formation of flash floods.Strengthening the monitoring and early warning of 1-hour short-term rainfall and snowmelt runoff is of practical significance for local resistance to flash floods.The research findings can provide a reference for the scientific assessment and prevention of flash flood disasters in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 风险评价 层次分析法 地理探测器 新疆维吾尔自治区 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P954[天文地球—自然地理学]